New York House races to be battlegrounds in 2024 elections

WASHINGTON — Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, the first Republican elected in his congressional district on Long Island in nearly three decades, already finds himself facing a barrage of attacks by Democrats — a year and a half before the 2024 election.

D’Esposito, 41, of Island Park, won last year in the 4th Congressional District in Nassau County, where voters in 2020 gave Democrat Joe Biden a 14.6 percentage point lead over then-President Donald Trump — making it the most Democratic district in the United States represented by a Republican.

“You could argue that just because of the makeup of the district that that’s the best Democratic House target in the whole country,” said Kyle Kondik, an analyst of U.S. House elections at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Yet D’Esposito counts as just one of the six New York Republicans who rode a red wave in 2022 to win in a district where Biden won a majority of votes just two years before — and most of them are in races political handicappers rate as toss-ups in the next election.

That makes New York, in a once-in-a-blue-moon moment, one of the most important battlegrounds for U.S. House races in the 2024 elections.

“You have 18 Republicans who hold districts that Biden won in 2020, and five of them are in California and six of them are in New York,” said Jacob Rubashkin, an analyst at Inside Elections, a political handicapping shop.

“It's not surprising to see Democrats really so lasered in on those two states,” Rubashkin said, “and in New York in particular.”

Looking ahead, Democrats and Republicans and their political allies have begun ramping up for intense campaigns in New York as they seek to win back control of the U.S. House.

Narrow margins

New York always plays a significant role in House elections. Democrats for decades have counted on the Deep Blue state to send a double-figure number of representatives to Washington.

But amid political partisanship, the majority party in the past two sessions of Congress has had a slim margin of five votes, and that made New York’s net loss of four Democratic House members last year a game-changer.

And New York is on track to play a major role in the 2024 elections, though the overall math for winning the majority could change after Republicans won court approval to add new Republican districts in North Carolina and a lawsuit seeking to add new Democratic districts proceeds in New York. 

Democrats now make up just under 58% of New York’s delegation in the U.S. House — with 15 of its 26 seats. That is the lowest proportion since Democrats held just under 55% of the delegation’s seats in the House after the Republican resurgence of 1994.

“New York was a black eye for Democrats at the House level in 2022, and that's why you see so much focus on it in 2024 with the majority up for grabs,” said Kondik, who also is managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Center for Politics’ newsletter on elections. 

Kondik lists races of five first-term New York Republican congressmen to be toss-ups: D’Esposito; George Santos of Nassau and Queens; Mike Lawler of Pearl River; Marc Molinaro of Red Hook; and Brandon Williams of Syracuse.

Inside Elections and the Cook Political Report also list the reelection bids of D’Esposito, Lawler, Molinaro and Williams as toss-ups, but Cook rates Santos' race as leaning Democratic.

Santos spillover?

Hanging over all discussions of next year’s election is what the future holds for Santos — and how that might affect other New York Republicans seeking reelection to two-year terms that pay $174,000 a year. 

Federal prosecutors recently indicted Santos for wire fraud, money laundering, theft of public funds and making false statements. And Santos faces other probes that could result in criminal charges. He says he will fight the charges and has refused to resign.

Earlier this month, House Republicans deflected a Democratic motion to expel Santos by referring it to the House Ethics Committee. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he asked the committee to expedite its Santos investigation.

If Santos resigns or is expelled, a special election will be held. Voter anger at Santos for his fabrications and legal woes might help a Democrat win, but it is not a sure bet.

Rubashkin said Santos is a drag on other New York Republicans, who would rather focus on other issues, particularly the issue of crime.

“Even if they want to be focusing on that, it’s much harder to do that when you know you have to be asked about the latest developments in the George Santos case every time you step in front of a microphone,” Rubashkin said.

Democrats, for example, have criticized D’Esposito for sponsoring the motion to expel Santos to the Ethics Committee after calling for his expulsion.

Kondik said he was not sure about a Santos spillover.

“I don't know if it really matters for other surrounding Republicans,” he said. “I do think also that the Republicans in New York seem to be working together a lot and trying to present this united front for the election coming up next year.”

Battle begins

Democrats are ramping up a campaign to win back New York seats that Republicans flipped from Democratic to Republican in last year's election.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been sending out blasts against the vulnerable New York Republican members of Congress since December.

“The battle for the House majority undoubtedly runs through New York in 2024, that’s why the DCCC is engaging strategically and earlier than ever across the state,” DCCC spokeswoman Nebeyatt Betre said.

In March, the House Majority PAC, a Democratic ally, announced it would spend $45 million for a New York Rapid Response War Room to defeat seven New York Republican members of Congress, including Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), Santos and D’Esposito.

Republicans have made some key moves.

McCarthy (R-Calif.) has set up two joint fundraising committees to pump money into the campaign funds of some of the New York Republican congressmen.

McCarthy’s Protect the House 2024 joint fundraising PAC raised about $540,000 — an average of $135,000 each — for D’Esposito, Lawler, Molinaro and Williams, but pointedly not Santos. And McCarthy has created a Protect the House New York 2024. It has not reported its fundraising and spending yet.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has focused many of its ads and attacks on Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner), who largely has followed the House Democratic leadership on most issues.

But NRCC spokeswoman Savannah Viar said, “The NRCC is all hands on deck to win in New York, helping our incumbents build their brands while taking the fight directly to extreme Democrats like Pat Ryan.

And Democrats are beginning to line up to take on New York’s first-year Republican House members. In the Fourth District in Nassau County, for example, papers have been filed to run so far by five Democrats, including former Olympic figure skater Sarah Hughes and Laura Gillen, a former Hempstead Town supervisor who is seeking a rematch after losing to D'Esposito last year.

Steve Israel, who as a Long Island congressman led the DCCC for two election cycles, said, “There are six Republican seats with targets on them. Both parties will be warring over them.”

D’Esposito, who fashions himself as a moderate, described Democrats as “out of touch” with Long Island, and “on the wrong side of every issue when it comes to New York State.”

He also said he is aware national and local Democrats are targeting him for defeat. But he shrugged it off.

“I was a New York City detective,” D’Esposito said, “so there’s always been a target on my back.”

Correction: Republican Rep. Anthony D'Esposito is from Island Park. A previous version of this story misstated his home community.