Hochul, Zeldin barrel toward finish of tumultuous governor's race

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Lee Zeldin are barreling to the finish of what likely will be New York's closest gubernatorial election in 28 years.

It’s a race that features New York’s first woman governor, who took over because of the resignation of Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, now trying to become its first elected woman governor.

On the other side, Zeldin, a Long Island congressman, is trying to overcome Democrats’ massive enrollment advantage and New Yorkers’ blue-state leanings on policy to become the first Republican to win a statewide election since 2002. 

It's a race that has seen party heavy hitters from either side rallying in New York for their candidate — President Joe Biden is the latest, set to campaign for Hochul on Sunday in Yonkers.

It’s also a race that’s offered voters strikingly different views on seemingly every campaign topic — from crime to abortion rights to gun control to Donald Trump — but in the end will rest on what key voting blocs turn out and which ones sit out.

But it’s not the only source of political power up for grabs on Election Day.

Twenty-six congressional seats, including four on Long Island, will be at stake, with the races helping determine which party controls Congress.

All 213 seats in the State Legislature also are on the line. Though Democrats are expected to hold on to majorities in the State Assembly and Senate, Republicans believe they will gain seats — enough to end Democrats’ two-thirds “supermajority” in the Legislature.

If that’s not enough, three other statewide offices — U.S. senator, state comptroller and attorney general — also are on the ballot.

But the marquee race clearly is for governor.

Hochul, buoyed by a fundraising operation that has generated about $50 million for her campaign, held a 17-point lead over Zeldin in a Siena College poll just after Labor Day.

Many of the latest polls now put Hochul’s edge in single digits, with some claiming a dead heat. As he trimmed the lead, Zeldin's fundraising has been aided by the Republican Governors Association and a separate political-action committee largely funded by cosmetics heir Ron Lauder — helping the Republican match Hochul's spending in the final month of the campaign.

No candidate has won a governor’s race in New York by single digits since Republican George Pataki beat Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo by 5 percentage points in 1994.

Since then, it’s been all blowouts: Two more wins for Pataki, then four straight for the Democrats.

Both Hochul and Zeldin cruised through party primaries in June to get to the general election.

Zeldin has sought to use a new law limiting the use of bail to criticize Hochul for the increase of crime, though state data doesn’t show a link and other states that haven’t changed bail laws also are seeing crime increases.

Hochul has criticized Zeldin for opposing abortion rights and siding with Trump in objecting to the 2020 presidential election results after Trump made false claims of election fraud. Zeldin says these aren’t the most important issues of the campaign.

As a result, big Democratic names have come to New York to gin up their base and push Hochul through. Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, ex-President Bill Clinton and ex-Sen. Hillary Clinton have stumped for Hochul.

Zeldin has countered with Republican governors from the South: Florida’s Ron DeSantis and Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin. Trump has endorsed Zeldin and helped him raise money, but he has stayed away from appearing on the campaign trail.

Veteran Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf said it now hinges on turnout — especially in Democratic-heavy Queens, Brooklyn and the Bronx.

“If the turnouts there aren’t reasonable, she loses,” Sheinkopf said of Hochul. “If the city turns out, she wins.”

"It will be fascinating to see whether all this targeted get-out-the-vote activity that Hochul is doing in New York City pays off," said Bruce Gyory, a veteran political strategist, adding, "The problem with these get-out-the-vote efforts is you can only judge them in retrospect."

Gyory noted that Youngkin and DeSantis, Zeldin's allies, aren't well known in New York and were more likely to encourage the party's base than attract independent voters.

In the State Legislature, Democrats are trying to hold "supermajorities" — two-thirds or more of the members — which give them potential power to override a governor's veto. But insiders and campaign strategists say they will have a hard time doing so — especially in the State Senate, where the GOP needs a net pickup of two seats to end the supermajority.

Nine Senate seats are up for grabs on the Island; 22 in the Assembly.

Among the highest profile: Sen. Anna Kaplan (D-North Hills) facing Republican Jack Martins, a former state senator from Mineola. Kaplan first won election four years ago as a part of "blue wave" of Democrats who captured the Senate majority for the first time in years.

Now, both sides are pointing to this race as a potential indicator of overall state trends.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy