Long Island voter turnout: Trump set to win both Nassau and Suffolk counties, first in over 30 years, unofficial tally shows

Suffolk County might be Trump country, as the lawn signs say, but these days Nassau isn't too far behind. 

On Long Island, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris in the presidential election, according to unofficial results.

Trump on Wednesday was on track to flipping Nassau — which went for Democrats Joe Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 — and, if his lead holds, he could be the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since George H. W. Bush in 1988, according to board of election officials. 

Trump received 402,924 votes in Suffolk compared to 323,473 for Harris, or 55% to 44%,  according to unofficial results from the Suffolk County Board of Elections. The compares to 2020 when Trump won by 232 votes and 2016 when he won by 46,619.

In Nassau, he won 52% of the vote, or 355,276 votes, compared to Harris' 47% percent, or 322,131 votes, according to unofficial tallies. Write-in candidates received the last 1% of the total vote in both counties. 

Of the combined 1.4 million ballots  cast on Long Island, 112,596 more voters chose Trump over Harris.

Data combining the unofficial results of the presidential race with the most recent, publicly available voter enrollment data shows Nassau and Suffolk counties had large turnout, with 68% and 67%, respectively.

There are a significant number of mail-in ballots to be counted by the counties' Board of Elections by Nov. 12. They are valid only if postmarked by Election Day.

Even as Nassau Republicans celebrated Trump's numbers, county GOP Chairman Joseph Cairo on Wednesday said "on the other hand it's bittersweet because we lost Anthony D'Esposito —  tough race — of course we knew it going in. We were playing in a game where the other side has 70,000 more enrollees."  

His Democratic challenger Laura Gillen, an attorney from Rockville Centre and former Hempstead Town supervisor, defeated D'Esposito in the 4th Congressional District race, which encompasses south and central Nassau. As of Wednesday afternoon, D'Esposito hadn't conceded, but Cairo said the numbers showed he had lost the race. Gillen had 51% to D'Esposito's 49%, leading by a slim margin of 6,148 votes.   

Trump aimed to boost his Long Island numbers and the Republican candidates down the ballot, including D'Esposito, with a Sept. 18 rally at the Nassau Veteran's Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale where more than 60,000 people requested tickets for 16,000 seats. Trump's campaign promises included getting “SALT back,” an apparent reference to lifting the cap on the state and local tax deduction, a central issue for homeowners in both counties. 

"Anthony got burned because of the district he resides in," Cairo said. "Look at the challenging areas Anthony runs in — Democrats win them overwhelmingly — Hempstead, Uniondale, Roosevelt, Baldwin, Freeport. That's tough." Political analysts had deemed the 4th Congressional District race a toss up. 

Trump won Suffolk County in 2016 and 2020. This year, he is up by about 80,000 votes — his largest margin yet.

Democratic challenger John Avlon also failed to flip the 1st Congressional District seat held by first-term U.S. Rep. Nick LaLota, which analysts had considered to be "in play." 

Avlon received 44.2% of the vote to LaLota’s 55.7%. Democratic challenger Rob Lubin lost to Republican U.S. Rep. Andrew Garbarino in the 2nd Congressional District 58.5% to 41.5%.

Suffolk County GOP Chairman Jesse Garcia said he believes the number of Suffolk Trump voters this year was among the most of any county in the country. He attributed Trump's overall victory here to how people feel about “pocketbook issues” as well as immigration and public safety.

“Were you better off than you were during his four years with mean tweets or the last four years of policy failure after policy failure, historic inflation [and] unsecured borders?” Garcia said. “It may sound corny to some people, but we [Republicans] are making our communities in Suffolk safer, more affordable and secure.”

Nassau and state Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs pointed to wins in state legislative races, including electing Siela Bynoe to the state Senate. Bynoe will be the first Black woman to represent Long Island in that chamber. He was not available to discuss turnout on Wednesday afternoon.

Jacobs was unavailable for an interview. 

Similar to Garcia, Suffolk County Democratic Chairman Rich Schaffer, who had not analyzed party turnout data as of Wednesday, said the Republican showing in the county came down to how people felt about their own wallets. He believed the numbers indicate that unaffiliated voters broke for Trump and likely voted Republican down ballot.

“James Carville (the political consultant) coined it back in 1992 when he said: ‘It's the economy, stupid,’” Schaffer said. “All of the other things that go on in a campaign are important, but when you're not talking about the base issue that's going to move or motivate people, that's when you're going to get that type of turnout and that type of results.”