Why the GOP is bullish on chances of keeping Long Island congressional seats
MILWAUKEE — New York Republicans gathered at the GOP national convention say they are feeling bullish about their chances to retain their congressional seats on Long Island citing polls showing increasing support for former President Donald Trump and division among Democrats over President Joe Biden’s nomination.
Trump has repeatedly said in media interviews he believes his former home state is “in play,” and party leaders contend inroads made by Republican candidates over the past three years in local and congressional races on Long Island and other New York suburban districts will continue to move in their direction. Skeptics, however, say the high chances of a statewide red wave are overblown.
The party’s optimism comes despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans in voter registration statewide, and Democrats typically turning out in larger numbers during presidential years. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won New York was in 1980 and 1984, when Ronald Reagan was the nominee.
The quadrennial conventions are typically an opportunity for party leaders to convey optimism about their chances heading into the November election, but party officials say the mood heading into this election season feels different because of the overall party unity behind Trump at a time that a number of prominent Democrats are calling for Biden to step down as the nominee over concerns about his age.
State GOP Chairman Ed Cox told Newsday he believes “momentum” is on the side of state Republicans, pointing to a string of victories by Long Island Republicans including flipping the Nassau County executive seat in 2021, picking up two House seats in 2022, and winning the Suffolk County executive seat in 2023.
“We are united in New York,” Cox said. “There’s excitement surrounding the convention. People follow these things and they understand this is going our way. This could be a big change election year.”
Richard Himelfarb, a Hofstra University political science professor, said for all the enthusiasm of Republicans, it will be “an uphill fight” for Trump to win statewide, but down-ballot incumbent Republicans could benefit from a potential boost in base turnout.
“The fact that the Republicans even feel they are in striking distance says a lot about the mood of the country right now, and it also says a lot about the prospects of local Republicans who are seeking election this year,” Himelfarb told Newsday. “Because they're going to have a much better chance of winning if Donald Trump” receives a greater share of the vote than he did in 2016 and 2020.
“They are looking at their electoral prospects, and they are saying ‘we're feeling pretty good because the person at the top of the ballot is not going to be a huge drag on us,’” Himelfarb said.
Nassau GOP Chairman Joe Cairo said he believed the convention, televised during prime-time hours, will generate “a great degree of enthusiasm” for down-ballot candidates.
“I’ve been around a long time, and the excitement we’re seeing is unparalleled,” said Cairo.
Democrats contend Rep. Tom Suozzi's victory in the February special election for the 3rd Congressional District seat formerly held by ousted Republican George Santos is evidence that Democrats can win back seats that were flipped in 2022. Suozzi, a Glen Cove Democrat, who previously held the 3rd district seat and before that served as Nassau county executive, defeated Republican Nassau County Legis. Mazi Pilip (R- Great Neck), a relative political newcomer.
Freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R- Island Park), who is running against Democrat Laura Gillen, the former Hempstead Town Supervisor, told Newsday, even though Biden won his district in 2020, and the district was long held by Democrats, he believes voters on Long Island are more prone to vote on issues than just party alone.
“We heard it through the 2022 campaign, when Democrats tried to continuously claim I was this extremist anti-abortion person,” D’Esposito said. “I’ve made it very clear in everything I’ve said, from the time I was a candidate, to the time I was a member that I would never support a nationwide abortion ban.”
Freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), who is running against Democrat John Avlon, a former CNN political analyst, said he believed New York Republicans “have a lot of wind in our sails.”
“The policy issues favor us on the border, the economy, and we are eager to make our case to the American people both on Long Island, in New York and throughout the country,” LaLota said as he made his way to the Fiserv Forum, where the convention is being held.
In an interview with Newsday from the convention floor, Mike Sapraicone, a retired NYPD detective running against Sen. Kristen Gilliband (D-NY), said he believed “timing” was on the side of Republican candidates.
“We’ve had those waves in Nassau and Suffolk over the last four years, and I think we’re right in the middle of great timing here,” said Sapraicone, who is serving as a convention delegate. “This is the best time to be running. I think we have a great shot right now because of President Trump. He wants to win New York, it’s personal for him.”
New York Democratic Committee Chairman Jay Jacobs, who also leads the Nassau County party, did not return a request for comment.
Democratic campaign strategist Hank Sheinkopf told Newsday that Democratic candidates will likely try to distance themselves from Biden, amid the turmoil over his nomination before August’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
“Is it possible that we’ll have another Ronald Reagan incident where Donald Trump will win the electoral votes in New York? Not likely. But do Republicans have a reason to be upbeat? Yeah, they do,” Sheinkopf said.
Many Republicans note that Trump’s nearly six-week hush money trial in lower Manhattan, gave him the opportunity to campaign in New York City to try to reach traditionally Democratic audiences. Trump held a rally in the South Bronx, delivered boxes of pizzas to a Manhattan firehouse, and he met with construction workers.
The convention has also featured speakers from New York, including Madeline Brame, the mother of Army veteran Hason Correa, who was fatally stabbed in Harlem in 2018, and Bob Bartels the manager of the Steamfitters Local 638, which represents pipefitters working in New York City and Long Island.
Republican leaders often point to a June Siena College poll that shows Trump trailing Biden by 8 percentage points, compared to the double-digit leads previously held by Biden.
MILWAUKEE — New York Republicans gathered at the GOP national convention say they are feeling bullish about their chances to retain their congressional seats on Long Island citing polls showing increasing support for former President Donald Trump and division among Democrats over President Joe Biden’s nomination.
Trump has repeatedly said in media interviews he believes his former home state is “in play,” and party leaders contend inroads made by Republican candidates over the past three years in local and congressional races on Long Island and other New York suburban districts will continue to move in their direction. Skeptics, however, say the high chances of a statewide red wave are overblown.
The party’s optimism comes despite Democrats outnumbering Republicans in voter registration statewide, and Democrats typically turning out in larger numbers during presidential years. The last time a Republican presidential candidate won New York was in 1980 and 1984, when Ronald Reagan was the nominee.
The quadrennial conventions are typically an opportunity for party leaders to convey optimism about their chances heading into the November election, but party officials say the mood heading into this election season feels different because of the overall party unity behind Trump at a time that a number of prominent Democrats are calling for Biden to step down as the nominee over concerns about his age.
- New York Republicans gathered at the GOP national convention say they are feeling bullish about their chances to retain their congressional seats on Long Island citing polls showing increasing support for former President Donald Trump.
- Trump has repeatedly said in media interviews he believes his former home state is “in play,” and party leaders contend inroads made by Republican candidates over the past three years in local and congressional races on Long Island and other New York suburban districts will continue to move in their direction.
- Skeptics say the high chances of maintaining GOP seats are overblown.
State GOP Chairman Ed Cox told Newsday he believes “momentum” is on the side of state Republicans, pointing to a string of victories by Long Island Republicans including flipping the Nassau County executive seat in 2021, picking up two House seats in 2022, and winning the Suffolk County executive seat in 2023.
“We are united in New York,” Cox said. “There’s excitement surrounding the convention. People follow these things and they understand this is going our way. This could be a big change election year.”
Richard Himelfarb, a Hofstra University political science professor, said for all the enthusiasm of Republicans, it will be “an uphill fight” for Trump to win statewide, but down-ballot incumbent Republicans could benefit from a potential boost in base turnout.
“The fact that the Republicans even feel they are in striking distance says a lot about the mood of the country right now, and it also says a lot about the prospects of local Republicans who are seeking election this year,” Himelfarb told Newsday. “Because they're going to have a much better chance of winning if Donald Trump” receives a greater share of the vote than he did in 2016 and 2020.
“They are looking at their electoral prospects, and they are saying ‘we're feeling pretty good because the person at the top of the ballot is not going to be a huge drag on us,’” Himelfarb said.
Nassau GOP Chairman Joe Cairo said he believed the convention, televised during prime-time hours, will generate “a great degree of enthusiasm” for down-ballot candidates.
“I’ve been around a long time, and the excitement we’re seeing is unparalleled,” said Cairo.
Democrats contend Rep. Tom Suozzi's victory in the February special election for the 3rd Congressional District seat formerly held by ousted Republican George Santos is evidence that Democrats can win back seats that were flipped in 2022. Suozzi, a Glen Cove Democrat, who previously held the 3rd district seat and before that served as Nassau county executive, defeated Republican Nassau County Legis. Mazi Pilip (R- Great Neck), a relative political newcomer.
Freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R- Island Park), who is running against Democrat Laura Gillen, the former Hempstead Town Supervisor, told Newsday, even though Biden won his district in 2020, and the district was long held by Democrats, he believes voters on Long Island are more prone to vote on issues than just party alone.
“We heard it through the 2022 campaign, when Democrats tried to continuously claim I was this extremist anti-abortion person,” D’Esposito said. “I’ve made it very clear in everything I’ve said, from the time I was a candidate, to the time I was a member that I would never support a nationwide abortion ban.”
Freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), who is running against Democrat John Avlon, a former CNN political analyst, said he believed New York Republicans “have a lot of wind in our sails.”
“The policy issues favor us on the border, the economy, and we are eager to make our case to the American people both on Long Island, in New York and throughout the country,” LaLota said as he made his way to the Fiserv Forum, where the convention is being held.
In an interview with Newsday from the convention floor, Mike Sapraicone, a retired NYPD detective running against Sen. Kristen Gilliband (D-NY), said he believed “timing” was on the side of Republican candidates.
“We’ve had those waves in Nassau and Suffolk over the last four years, and I think we’re right in the middle of great timing here,” said Sapraicone, who is serving as a convention delegate. “This is the best time to be running. I think we have a great shot right now because of President Trump. He wants to win New York, it’s personal for him.”
New York Democratic Committee Chairman Jay Jacobs, who also leads the Nassau County party, did not return a request for comment.
Democratic campaign strategist Hank Sheinkopf told Newsday that Democratic candidates will likely try to distance themselves from Biden, amid the turmoil over his nomination before August’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
“Is it possible that we’ll have another Ronald Reagan incident where Donald Trump will win the electoral votes in New York? Not likely. But do Republicans have a reason to be upbeat? Yeah, they do,” Sheinkopf said.
Many Republicans note that Trump’s nearly six-week hush money trial in lower Manhattan, gave him the opportunity to campaign in New York City to try to reach traditionally Democratic audiences. Trump held a rally in the South Bronx, delivered boxes of pizzas to a Manhattan firehouse, and he met with construction workers.
The convention has also featured speakers from New York, including Madeline Brame, the mother of Army veteran Hason Correa, who was fatally stabbed in Harlem in 2018, and Bob Bartels the manager of the Steamfitters Local 638, which represents pipefitters working in New York City and Long Island.
Republican leaders often point to a June Siena College poll that shows Trump trailing Biden by 8 percentage points, compared to the double-digit leads previously held by Biden.
Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.
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