New NY Congress maps a blow to Democrats, boon for GOP

ALBANY — New York’s congressional elections will be more competitive — with much better odds for Republicans — under a new proposal unveiled Monday.

The maps, drawn by a court-appointed “special master,” make for about 15 Democrat-leaning districts in the state and five that lean Republican.

The remaining six could be considered toss-up districts, with Democrats holding a slight advantage in most of them based on 2020 voting patterns, according to analysts.

Still, for Republicans, those maps mean far better odds than a map approved earlier this year by the Democrat-dominated State Legislature that created a 22-4 split favoring Democrats.

Those maps were thrown out by New York’s top court, which found the districts to have been gerrymandered illegally.

State Senate districts also were ordered redrawn. Released late Monday, the Senate maps contain fewer changes than the congressional maps.

One key change on Long Island: The new maps allow for a white-majority population in the 3rd Senate District, after lines drawn in January had created a district with a plurality-Hispanic population.

Another big change: Sens. James Gaughran (D-Northport) and Mario Mattera (R-St. James) both would reside in the 2nd Senate District.

That would set up a possible battle of incumbents in Mattera’s home district, which favors Republicans.

Overall on Long Island, the Senate new maps created one GOP-leaning district (the 3rd) in Suffolk County, two Democratic-leaning districts (the 6th and 9th) and six toss-ups. The current delegation has five Democrats and four Republicans.

The new maps were drawn by Jonathan Cervas, a political scientist at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh who has played a role in drawing districts for other states. 

“Not unexpected, but this NY map is pretty bad news for Democrats,” Dave Wasserman, a redistricting analyst with the Cook Political Report, wrote on Twitter.

Some Democrats expressed outrage at the clustering of several incumbent Black representatives in districts, triggering possible primaries.

"The draft redistricting map viciously targets historic Black representation in NY, and places 4 Black members of Congress into the same district. This tactic would make Jim Crow blush," Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, wrote on Twitter.

The new map places Jeffries and Rep. Yvette Clarke, both Brooklyn Democrats, in the same district.

It was unclear how much the maps can be changed from the draft released Monday.

Although there will be a brief comment period for possible adjustments, the judge overseeing the process has said he plans to make the new maps final by Friday.

Redistricting must be done every 10 years to account for population changes in the latest U.S. Census.

On Long Island, the most noticeable change made by Cervas is the elimination of a “Sound Shore” congressional district.

Democratic state legislators had proposed changing the 3rd District — currently represented by Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) — by stretching it along Long Island Sound from Suffolk County all the way through the Westchester County communities bordering Long Island Sound.

Under the new map, the 3rd District would be primarily a Nassau County district containing a sliver of Queens.

Joshua Lafazan, a Democratic Nassau County legislator, said he'd continue to run for the 3rd Congressional District seat even though his residence is in the 2nd District under the proposed maps. His county legislative district falls wholly in the 3rd, a spokeswoman noted.

Melanie D'Arrigo, Jon Kaiman and Robert Zimmerman all said they'd continue to run in a Democratic primary for the 3rd.

State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi (D-Pelham), who would no longer reside in the district, didn't immediately comment on whether she'd stay in the race.

On the East End, the 1st Congressional District would return to the Republican-leaning column.

The state Legislature had extended it far into Nassau, making it favor Democrats by a margin of 55% to 45%.

Under the special master's map, it becomes 52% to 47% Republican — roughly matching the voter enrollment split in 2020.

Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) holds the seat but is running for New York governor.

The new map also could pit some incumbent congressional Democrats against one another in possible primaries.

Besides a possible Jeffries v. Clarke race, for instance, Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney could face off in Manhattan.

Nadler said he'd run in the 12th Congressional District, where Maloney resides. She didn't comment immediately.

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-Cold Spring) said he'd switch from the 18th to the 17th District, prompting Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan and State Sen. James Skoufis (D-Cornwall) to say they would run for the 18th. 

Marc Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive, said he's switching his candidacy from the 18th Congressional District to the 19th — which doesn't include Dutchess but is slightly more favorable for a Republican.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy