Jan. 6, 2021 riots reverberate in presidential campaign and courts

WASHINGTON — Three years after supporters of former President Donald Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol looking to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election, the political and legal reverberations continue.

Trump, who faces federal criminal charges for his alleged role leading up to the Jan. 6 riot, remains the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, setting up a likely rematch against President Joe Biden.

Trump faces numerous legal questions raised by the attack — including whether he is eligible to remain on the ballot in a number of blue states where state officials and voting rights groups contend he led an insurrection and should be tossed in accordance with the U.S. Constitution.

Colorado and Maine have taken steps to remove Trump from their upcoming primary ballots, but Trump is challenging those decisions. Legal analysts say the conservative-stacked U.S. Supreme Court is likely to weigh in as other states consider petitions to remove Trump.

The attack on the Capitol also is a central part of the messaging of both campaigns, with Biden branding Trump as a threat to democracy for his actions on Jan. 6, and Trump using the day’s events to galvanize his base of supporters.

The legal challenges surrounding Trump, including the charges stemming from the riot, are causing uncertainty about how the 2024 campaign will play out, said William Howell, a political-science professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy.

“We don't know exactly how these cases are going to come out and, if they're decided before the election, how they will play politically,” Howell told Newsday.

SEE PHOTOSPhotos of the January 6th riot at the U.S. Capitol

Other Jan. 6 questions remain:

Will Trump’s trial start in March?

Trump’s federal trial on charges that he conspired to overthrow the election is slated to start March 4, a day before the Super Tuesday presidential primary contests. But the start date is in question as the former president challenges the proceedings.

U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan last month temporarily halted all proceedings to await the outcome of an appeal filed by Trump’s legal team that argues he is protected by presidential immunity.

Federal prosecutors countered that nothing in the U.S. Constitution outlines “absolute immunity” for former presidents for conduct committed while in office. Trump, who has pleaded not guilty, has argued he is “cloaked with absolute immunity” as a former president.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit is scheduled to hear arguments Tuesday.

Could Supreme Court case impact LI defendants?

Since the attack, 1,237 defendants from across the nation have been charged, including more than 70 current and former New Yorkers. Fifteen of them are from Long Island, according to the Justice Department and Newsday reporting.

More than 700 entered guilty pleas, and 138 have been found guilty in trials and given penalties ranging from community service to incarceration, according to the Justice Department. A total of 454 were sentenced to jail.

A case set to be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court this term could decide whether many of those convictions are upheld.

Last month, the court agreed to hear a case brought by three defendants charged with trying to obstruct an official proceeding on Jan. 6.

The charge was used to prosecute hundreds of protesters that day. But lawyers for the three — Joseph Fischer, of Massachusetts, Edward Lang, of Newburgh,  and Garret Miller, of Texas — contend it is too broad in scope.

U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, representing the federal government, countered in a legal filing that “a defendant obstructs an official proceeding by physically blocking it from occurring — as happened here when petitioners and others violently occupied the Capitol for several hours and thereby prevented the joint session of Congress from doing its work.”

A decision likely would come in June when the court concludes its term.

How are Democrats responding?

Democrats made gains in key battleground states during 2022 midterm elections against Republican candidates who expressed support for the rioters.

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Josh Shapiro defeated Republican Doug Mastriano, a Trump supporter who was at the Capitol on Jan. 6. In Arizona, Democrat Katie Hobbs beat Republican Kari Lake who has repeated Trump’s unsubstantiated assertions that the 2020 election was “stolen.” Democrats also won secretary of state races in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada, defeating Republicans who promoted the argument.

Biden's campaign this week began airing an ad in seven battleground states that replays images of the attack as Biden asks, “What will we do to maintain our democracy?”

While Trump has used Jan. 6 to rally Republican support during the primary season, “the general election is going to look very different in that the action shifts away from the base towards centrists, and it's not at all clear how Jan. 6 works to his benefit,” Howell said.

“If it has an effect, I suspect it'll be a negative effect on his ability to reach that sliver of independents and moderates who haven't made up their mind,” Howell said.

How do voters view the Jan. 6 melee?

A majority of voters — 55% — believe the incident represented an “attack on democracy that should never be forgotten,” according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll released Tuesday.

But the poll indicates a growing number of Republicans have become less likely to hold Trump responsible.

The poll of 1,024 adults conducted Dec. 14-18 found 53% believed Trump bears a “great deal” or “a good amount” of responsibility, compared with 60% of those surveyed in December 2021. The poll noted that two years ago 27% of Republicans assigned Trump blame compared with 14% in the new poll.

Richard Himelfarb, a political-science professor at Hofstra University, said part of the changing sentiment may be due to Trump’s growing legal challenges beyond the Jan. 6 case, including criminal cases in South Florida, Georgia and Manhattan.

“Part of the problem that Democrats have in prosecuting the case that Trump is responsible for Jan. 6, and that he was encouraging an insurrection, and this makes him unqualified to run for another term, is that these charges come amid so many other charges, that effectively they have muddied the Democrats' case,” Himelfarb told Newsday.