Experts: Donald Trump conviction likely to have little impact on presidential race

WASHINGTON — Former President Donald Trump’s criminal conviction on 34 felony charges Thursday likely will be a major issue on the presidential campaign trail, but the verdict likely will have little effect on his chances against Democratic President Joe Biden, political experts said.

Of Trump, who pleaded not guilty to charges that he falsified business documents to conceal hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels in the final days of the 2016 presidential election, an overwhelming number of voters said the outcome of the trial would not change their support or opposition to Trump.

A Newsday/Siena College poll of Long Island voters found 69% of respondents said their opinion of Trump wouldn't be impacted even if he were found guilty. The poll, conducted May 13-15, had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

“We have this unprecedented event, and the vast majority of voters are saying, 'Regardless of how it turns out, it's not gonna have any effect on me,' ” Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, told Newsday Thursday.

Levy said while more than 60% of Long Island voters polled said they were paying attention to the trial, the fact that cameras were prohibited in Judge Juan M. Merchan’s lower Manhattan courtroom, likely worked to Trump’s benefit.

“Had we had cameras in the courtroom, perhaps at least on some days, it would have been highly watched television, and very well had more of an effect,” Levy said.

A Marist College/NPR/PBS NewsHour poll released Thursday found 67% of voters surveyed nationally said a guilty verdict would make no difference in how they vote. Only 17% said it would make them less likely to vote for Trump. The poll, conducted May 21-23, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

“Despite Biden’s campaign appearances and Trump’s court appearances, the contest for president has been and remains tight,” said Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “When it comes to this rematch, it’s as if voters are saying, 'Tell me something about Biden and Trump, I don’t already know.' ”

Republican campaign strategist Michael Dawidziak, who advised the late Republican President George H.W. Bush’s campaign, said the trial is likely not hurting Trump’s poll numbers because most voters already were aware of the details of the hush money allegations, which first surfaced in news reports in 2018.

“I think there are bigger issues for people — whether it's immigration, whether it's inflation, whether it's reproductive rights — there are bigger issues that people are going to use to make up their minds about whether they're going to vote for Donald Trump or Joe Biden,” Dawidziak told Newsday.

If Biden is able to appeal to a portion of the 17% of voters who said the verdict would keep them from voting for Trump, it could help close the gap in critical swing states, said Lawrence Levy, executive director of Hofstra University's National Center for Suburban Studies.

"If only 5% shifted — especially in the big three swing states — it would be enormous and possibly decisive," Levy told Newsday of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Republican campaign strategist Susan Del Percio said Thursday’s verdict could help Biden “peel away” Republicans who have soured on Trump, including those who voted for former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.

But “as disturbing as the charges are, there was nothing new and there was nothing that was a game changer in the political race,” Del Percio, who is based in Manhattan, told Newsday.

The Manhattan District Attorney’s case was the first of the four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial. The others involve his alleged role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving office and his alleged efforts in Georgia to influence the outcome of the 2020 election.

By Laura Figueroa Hernandez

laura.figueroa@newsday.com@Laura_Figueroa

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.