How an American cardinal defied the long odds to become Pope Leo XIV

It was supposed to be nearly impossible: an American getting elected pope. But it happened on Thursday, stunning Vatican experts and millions of the faithful in the pews alike.

The elevation of Chicago native Robert Francis Prevost appeared to come from a confluence of factors, analysts said Friday. He was a longtime missionary in Peru, he headed a major international religious order and he held a top Vatican post.

He had the stamp of approval from Pope Francis as a pastor "with the smell of sheep," but also was seen as a moderate who has largely stayed out of hot-button issues and with whom both progressive and conservative Catholics might be comfortable.

And the long-standing taboo against naming an American because the church did not want to concentrate even more power with the world’s dominant superpower seemed to vanish amid a new world order with China and other nations on the rise, analysts say.

Prevost "was not on my bingo card" of possible popes, said the Rev. Patrick Flanagan, an assistant professor of theology and religious studies at St. John’s University. "In passing, I had heard his name but dismissed it because the thought of an American pope was so foreign to the global church’s imagination."

While many saw Prevost as a "dark horse candidate," in retrospect he "checked a lot of boxes," said John Thavis, author of "The Vatican Diaries" and a former Vatican correspondent for Catholic News Service.

Pope Leo XIV’s two decades in Peru as a parish priest, bishop and teacher likely were a key factor in his election, according to analysts.

"I think that the Latin American cardinals were united behind Prevost. They saw him as one of their own, not simply a gringo," said the Rev. Thomas Reese, a senior analyst for Religion News Service. "He may have been born in the United States, but he was also a Peruvian citizen, and I think his heart was in Latin America, and the Latin American cardinals recognized that and supported him."

There were 21 cardinals from Latin America at the conclave, which is conducted in secret. Two-thirds, or 89 out of 133, votes were needed to be elected pope.

'International figure'

"I think he was really seen as a more of an international figure who happens to hold a U.S. passport and come from Chicago," Thavis said.

After his time in Peru, Prevost was brought to Rome in 2023 by Francis, who placed him in a powerful post in charge of selecting candidates for bishops around the world. This likely allowed many of the cardinals who were voting to get to know Prevost well before the conclave, Flanagan said. Many of the cardinals at the conclave, the largest and most geographically diverse one ever, did not know each other.

Prevost also got to know many church leaders when he headed the 2,800-member Augustinian order, traveling to nearly 50 countries, Thavis said.

Prevost, who speaks Spanish, Italian, French and Portuguese, was able to talk to many of them in their native languages — both then and in the run-up to the conclave.

"I think the most important factor is that he had the kinds of connections around the world and in different places of the world that made him respected and well-known," Thavis said. Prevost "has pastoral experience, he has administrative experience, and he has a spirituality that comes from his religious order. That's a winning combination."

That Prevost was elected so quickly, on the fourth ballot, "tells me he had significant support before the cardinals went in to vote," Thavis said.

Ideal age

Prevost was also an ideal age for a pope candidate — 69. Cardinals typically do not want a younger pope since his papacy could last decades. Pope John Paul II, elected at 58, served for 26 years.

The superpower concern also apparently was not an insurmountable drawback for the cardinals, Reese said.

John Allen, a longtime Vatican expert, was one of the few analysts who predicted that before the conclave — and listed Prevost as a serious candidate.

"America is no longer the world’s lone superpower, and, in any event, dynamics inside the College of Cardinals have changed," Allen wrote on Cruxnow.com on May 1. "Geography is largely dead as a voting issue; cardinals no longer care what passport a candidate holds, but rather what spiritual, political and personal profile he embodies."

Although not the main factor, some analysts believe naming an American pope may serve as a corrective to a wave of rising authoritarianism in the United States and around the world.

"We are watching authoritarianism swell in all parts of the globe but is fueled most visibly by the Trump administration in Washington, D.C.," Steven P. Millies, a professor at Catholic Theological Union in Chicago, told Religion News Service. "The election of an American pope, the first American pope ... there’s a signal here that the church is taking a side in what’s happening around the globe."