Analyzing impact of Aqueduct on Election Day

Will yesterday's explosive report on the slot-machine mega-contract for Aqueduct Racetrack be felt at the polls a week from Tuesday?

The best answer is that it helps fuel the belief that at Albany's government gaming tables, the cards may be marked.

Only last year, for the first time in four decades, Democrats took majority control in the State Senate. Recent as their rise may be, the conference's leaders have quickly dealt their way into trouble, as this stinging report from Joseph Fisch, the state inspector general, shows.

One finding was that, under Senate conference leader John Sampson (D-Brooklyn), the majority office disclosed inside information to ex-Sen. Carl Andrews, a lobbyist for Aqueduct Entertainment Group. That was the firm selected and later rejected for the multibillion-dollar jackpot contract in question. Sampson also apparently pushed for a "preferred developer" to get work, the report said.

Also at the table for AEG was Senate President Malcolm Smith (D-St. Albans). Fisch's report found that despite supposedly "recusing" himself - due to a longtime alliance with an AEG partner, the Rev. Floyd Flake - Smith "continued to advocate" for the firm.

Don't expect Smith to be bounced from his seat Nov. 2, though. Democrats in his 14th Senate District totaled 129,729, Republicans 14,448, and blanks, 24,281. He's a shoo-in.

The same goes for Sampson. His 19th Senate District listed 144,031 Democrats, 8,564 Republicans and 20,660 blanks as of April.

The report casts further blame for the quagmire at Aqueduct on the offices of Gov. David A. Paterson and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. Paterson's man David Johnson (since accused in that unrelated domestic-violence case) advocated for AEG even without any "official role," Fisch found. And secretary to the governor Lawrence Schwartz's testimony, the IG said, "was characterized by a remarkable professed lack of recall." Probers also found Silver failed to act quickly enough against the AEG deal.

The relative high ground here would seem to go to Senate GOP Minority Leader Dean Skelos of Rockville Centre. Most of those slammed in the report were from the Capitol's three power centers, all currently headed by Democrats. Thus Skelos declared Thursday that New Yorkers "have been hurt by the arrogance of one-party rule. This scandal proves once again that absolute power corrupts absolutely, and makes the best case for having checks and balances in state government."

As to that, the governorship looks unlikely - for the moment - to return this year to Republican hands. Far less likely is a party turnover of the Assembly. So by "checks and balances" Skelos clearly means returning his conference to the Senate majority. With New York City a partisan lock, that would have to come from a turnover in suburban and upstate districts. These have been battlegrounds for months.

The IG report suggests the ill-fated Aqueduct bid process resulted from a political compromise between bitter rivals, then-Gov. Eliot Spitzer and then-GOP Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno.

Bruno was Skelos' predecessor. But in terms of Capitol time, Bruno is long gone. As a result, Skelos and company may be holding the best hand when it comes to any fallout from this casino report.