Subway riders on edge as assaults rise, but felonies at historically low levels amid National Guard deployment

The recent string of high-profile, violent crimes in the New York City transit system — and the surge in police and National Guard presence in response this week — has some Long Islanders on edge about riding the subways, even though statistics show that crime remains at historic lows.

“I see a lot of stuff on the news, like people getting shoved onto the tracks, or the conductor sticks his head out the window and he gets his throat slashed. And and it’s, like, this is just crazy,” said Fred Geiger, 50, of Lindenhurst, an LIRR commuter who has recently opted to use a Citi Bike, rather than the subway, to get to his Greenwich Village job. “All of a sudden, it’s becoming like the early '80s again.”

Major felonies have spiked in the first several weeks of 2024 compared with the same period last year, but NYPD statistics show that subway crime remains well below its highs in the 1980s and '90s, when the subway system was averaging about 14,000 major felonies a year, according to several news stories from the era. The New York Police Department defines a major felony as a murder, rape, robbery, grand larceny, felony assault or burglary.

In 2023, the NYPD counted 2,285 such crimes in the subways, down 2.6% from the 2,345 the previous year. The figure is also about 13% lower than the subway crime rate in 2013, and 29% below that in 2003 — and 63% lower than in 1997, the earliest year available in the MTA’s New York City Transit Committee monthly reports.

“The reality of it is … you’re probably safer than you were 10 years ago,” said Gerard Bringmann, chairman of the LIRR Commuter Council, who believes seasoned Long Island commuters are less anxious about the state of the transit system than more infrequent Manhattan visitors. “But the perception is, because you’re seeing all these newspaper stories and you couple that with the bail reform stories and the recidivism, that gives you the perception that it’s hell on Earth down there.”

Still, riders’ perceptions of  increasing subway crime are not completely without merit. The 570 assaults committed on subways last year were 2.5% higher than in 2022, and the most in more than 25 years, according to NYPD statistics. The upward trend continued into January this year, when transit police recorded 55 subway assaults — 10 more than in January 2023. Overall, major crimes rose 47% in January, as compared  with the same month last year. 

 In February, subway crimes fell 15.4% compared to the same month last year.

Compounding riders' worries is the fact that ridership remains well below pre-COVID levels, said Jason Ostrowe, assistant professor of criminal justice at St. Joseph's University in Patchogue. The total of 1.15 billion riders carried last year was about 32% below 2019.

“Consequently, while reports of crime in the subway may be low historically, the perception of crime and disorder remains high since there are fewer subway riders,” said Ostrowe, a former NYPD academy instructor and policy analyst. “As such, subway riders perceptions are not completely unfounded.”

Many of the incidents have been high profile. A man was pushed onto subway tracks at Penn Station last Sunday, another was slashed in the hand on a train in what police are investigating as an anti-LGBTQ hate crime and a train conductor was slashed in the neck while looking out of his control cab at a Brooklyn station.

On Wednesday, Gov. Kathy Hochul touched on the contrast between riders’ perception and reality while outlining several new measures to address subway crime, including deploying the National Guard to help conduct random bag checks at subway stations.

“Rattling off statistics saying things are getting better doesn’t make you feel better, especially when you’ve just heard about someone being slashed in the throat or thrown onto the subway tracks,” Hochul said. “There’s a psychological impact. People worry they can be next. Anxiety takes hold.”

The uptick in crime led New York Mayor Eric Adams to order 1,000 extra cops into the subways in January. On Wednesday, Hochul directed another 1,000 National Guard soldiers, New York State Troopers, and MTA Police officers to help protect the subway system.

Riders' divided opinions

At subway turnstiles adjacent to Grand Central Madison Thursday afternoon, five MTA police officers stood shoulder to shoulder against a wall. Around the corner were two more officers, from the NYPD. Nearby, some Long Island commuters appeared unfazed by the heightened police presence.

“I feel very safe on the New York City subways. Whether I should or not, I don’t know, but I do,” said Marcia Mayer, 78, an economist from Laurel Hollow. “I’m a lifelong New Yorker. I don’t find it less safe.”

But other Suffolk and Nassau commuters said their safety concerns have steered them away from the subways. Adam Asch, of Deer Park, said he typically opts to ride a scooter around the city instead.

“It’s just less money, and I just think it’s better than taking the subway,” said Asch, 55, a construction superintendent.

At Penn Station near the start of the Friday evening rush hour, at least 15 state troopers, seven MTA Police officers, and a pair of National Guard manned the 1/2/3 subway entrance, where a flashing electronic sign advised commuters of the “SECURITY INSPECTION CHECKPOINT.”

A state trooper clicking a handheld counter was part of a team helping pick whose bags would be searched, ostensibly at random. Gloved cops opened zippers, rummaged inside bags and peered with flash lights. The police captain overseeing the checkpoint said that a selected passenger who refuses the search can’t enter via that entrance, but can go in via another one.

Bringmann said he expects most Long Island commuters will be comforted by the heightened police presence, although he questioned the utility of bag checks that could inconvenience many riders, including construction workers carrying cutting tools.

“Any native New Yorker knows, if you’re going to carry a weapon to do harm to somebody, you’re not keeping it in your bag,” Bringmann said. “It’s not like you’re taking your violin to a concert and you’ll take it out when you get there.”

Bringmann added that experienced commuters also know to take measures to protect themselves, including by traveling in numbers and protecting their belongings.

LIRR rider Annie Jang, of Little Neck, said she avoids listening to music when on the subways because she wants to be aware of her surroundings. She acknowledged that her concerns over crime on the subways has been influenced by recent news accounts.

“I would just walk away if I see a crazy person,” she said.

Long Islanders’ fears over New York’s transit system could also further set back MTA efforts to win support for its forthcoming congestion pricing plan, which counts on using new tolls in Manhattan to encourage would-be motorists to take the train instead, thereby reducing city traffic. Subway safety concerns were cited by several New Yorkers speaking out against congestion pricing at recent public hearings.

Sammy Chu, who most recently sat on the MTA board as its Suffolk County representative and is now awaiting Senate confirmation as a representative of Hochul on the board, said the MTA has to face two separate but adjacent challenges — making riders feel safe and making them “actually safe.”

“We’re a revenue-dependent agency. So an important part of our business is making sure that we’re managing perceptions for all our paying riders,” Chu said. “Even if we don’t agree with their assessment, ultimately we’re still going to have to work to change their perceptions.”