Rangers' Ogando will fall back to earth

Fantasy baseball players were unsure what to make of Alexi Ogando in drafts. He was being mentioned as a possible closer for the Rangers, but was being stretched out as a starter in the spring. Once Neftali Feliz was officially named closer, Ogando became a starter.

The former outfielder has been terrific with a 3-0 record, 2.30 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and a 21/8 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 innings. Can he keep it up? It's highly unlikely.

He doesn't have much experience as a starter and is mainly throwing two pitches. Ogando has been very lucky so far with a .165 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and a 95.5 percent strand rate when the average is 72 percent.

Ogando allows a lot of fly balls (48 percent rate) and already gave up five home runs and that doesn't bode well in Texas. A 4.74 fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERA is a true measure of what Ogando's ERA should be.

Here are some other players off to surprising starts.

Josh Tomlin (Indians, SP): He is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA, and 0.91 WHIP. Has excellent control, but doesn't get strikeouts. Once the strand rate (91 percent) falls and the BABIP (.179) go back to the regular levels, Tomlin will have an ERA closer to last season's 4.56.

Tim Stauffer (Padres, SP): A low K/9 (5.79), but excellent control and induces a lot of ground balls (55 percent rate). Pitching at Petco Park is a huge advantage, but he is for real.

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Jeff Francoeur (Royals, OF): He's one of the most streaky hitters and this has happened before. Is it different in his age 27 season? Through 94 at-bats, Francoeur is batting .330 with five home runs, 19 RBIs, 16 runs and three stolen bases. There's nothing in his approach that's changed. He's not drawing walks, the strikeout rate is the same as the career mark and the fly ball rate is just 32.5 percent. There's no breakout looming.

Austin Jackson (Tigers, OF): It's no surprise Jackson is struggling. A .396 BABIP showed last season's .293 average was a fluke. Jackson, who is batting just .167, strikes out way too much and if he's not getting on base the opportunities to steal bases will be minimal.

Matt Garza (Cubs, SP): The K/9 is way up, the BABIP is .414, the strand rate is 60 percent, the ERA is 4.11 and the FIP is 1.25. Garza is mixing his pitches more. He threw his fastball at least 70 percent of the time the last three seasons, is throwing it 55 percent now and cut down on allowing fly balls. Buy.

Yovani Gallardo (Brewers, SP): Outside of a low strikeout rate, nothing seems out of line. With a career K/9 of 9.11, a 5.7 K/9 seems like an outlier since there's no significant change in velocity. Stay patient.

Justin Smoak (Mariners, 1B): Many people downgraded him because of pitcher-friendly Safeco Field and a bad lineup. It won't help him but Smoak is a good hitter that is useful as a corner infielder in a mixed league. He is batting .303 with four home runs, 15 RBIs, and a 15/13 K/BB ratio.

All statistics entering Friday.