NYS crime rates down 9% in past year, but public perception hasn't followed the data

Crime rates have dropped around New York State in the past year — even if people, according to public opinion polls, believe otherwise.

Updated statistics from the state Department of Criminal Justice Services show overall crime incidents in the 57 counties outside New York City dropped 9% from the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of this year.

Violent crimes declined 5% and murders are down 10%. To be sure, those rates are declining following what had been an increase coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, crime incidents dipped 12% in Suffolk County and 18% in Nassau County, though it has seen some fluctuations by category.

“New York was not immune to two national crime waves that started during the pandemic,” said Joseph Popcun, DCJS executive deputy commissioner. He said the state now is “returning to where we were” in many crime categories.

Murders outside of New York City jumped about 20% in 2020 and again in 2021, according to DCJS comparisons of the first quarter of each year. But they dropped 25% in 2023 and another 10% so far in 2024.

Property crime had climbed steadily through 2023 but dipped 9% in 2024 so far.

But the data doesn’t match perception.

Even though the numbers are dropping, New York residents — by a roughly 3-1 ratio — tell pollsters crime is getting worse, at least in other parts of the state and not in their own neighborhoods.

“There’s certainly a variance between the concerns people have and the crime statistics,” said Don Levy, pollster for Siena College. He said sometimes public opinion of crime takes a few years to catch up with actual trends, but also media and the political treatment of crime are important factors.

“This perception has permeated people’s thinking, that we have a lack of safety,” Levy said.

In Siena’s most recent poll in August, 54% of voters who were surveyed said crime was getting worse in the state; 16% said it was getting better. Long Islanders essentially matched that: 55% said worse, 14% better.

And yet, people tend to not think the same way about their own neighborhood, Levy said. For example, when asked specifically about that last November, 55% of Long Islanders said crime has stayed about the same, 34% said worse and 10% said better.

However, comparing the beginning of 2024 with 2023, crime incidents on Long Island have declined overall, according to DCJS. However, some categories are up.

Suffolk County crime incidents overall have declined in the first quarter of 2024 by 12%, with decreases across almost every category. Violent crimes are down 15%; property crimes 12%.

The most often reported crime, larceny, dropped 12%.

Nassau County saw an overall 18% decline in incidents over the period, but had up and down results in different categories: declines in murders, assaults, larcenies and automobile theft; increases in rape, robbery and burglaries.

Statewide, the decline in violent crime began in 2023, when incidents fell about 4%. Property crimes were still rising statewide in 2023 (12%) before turning downward this year.

Nationally, it’s much of the same with rates declining, but perception lagging behind, according to researchers.

“We are seeing a historic drop in crime. The decline is huge and it’s real,” said John Roman, of the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. He said crime rates started slightly increasing in the middle of the last decade, popped during the pandemic and now are dropping again.

“The numbers for New York are very similar to what we are seeing around the country, though New York might be a little bit delayed in the decline,” Roman said, noting other states were seeing noticeable drops in 2023.

Even though the rates are dramatically lower than, say, the 1980s, he said public perception doesn’t always match this. The factors include random crime, random crime on television, mass shootings, public messaging about safety, and political rhetoric.

“People are much more worried about random events than predictable events,” Roman said. “If they see a story about someone being pushed in front of a subway car, or a mass shooting, those are the types of events that ring deep psychological alarm bells.”

Further, ever since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, he said: “We perceive ourselves to be less safe than we actually are.”

“Stoking the fire” on crime also works politically, said James Mulvaney, an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice who once served as deputy commissioner in the state Division of Human Rights.

Conversely, “If you are a politician and you say everything is safe and all of a sudden, you’re hit with some terrible anecdote involving crime,” you can pay a political price, Mulvaney said.

Levy said polling shows a clear political divide: A July survey of New York voters found 84% of Republicans said crime was getting worse, while just 32% of Democrats said so. He called the difference “staggering” and one that isn’t regularly reflected on issues questions.

“Democrats and Republicans live next to each other, and to have a 52-point difference shows it is not objective,” Levy said.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy