Analysts see boost for Harris, missed opportunities for Trump in debate

ALBANY — Political experts said Wednesday that neither Democratic nominee for president Kamala Harris nor Republican nominee Donald Trump sealed a win in Tuesday’s debate for the close race for the White House.

But they also said Harris succeeded in introducing herself to voters in critical swing states, while Trump missed chances to try to depict Harris as an extreme liberal.

"In a close election and with early voting starting in only a few weeks, the debate will have an impact," said Kevin Madden, a national Republican commentator who was a senior adviser to Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign. "At the very least, Harris used her time very efficiently when it came to filling in the blanks for voters who are still undecided or open to supporting her.

"Trump, on the other hand, has 110 percent name ID," Madden told Newsday. "People actually know more about him than they even want to. So, this was his best chance to paint Harris out of the mainstream. He just didn't do that as effectively as he needed to."

Other political observers said the impact of Tuesday’s confrontation on the race isn’t yet clear. "I think it’s a one-day news story," said Susan Del Percio, a national political commentator who has advised Republicans and Democrats.

Del Percio said that whether the debate will have any longer term impact of the race will depend in part on whether there is a second debate. But until then Harris has gotten a boost.

"This was about the vice president introducing herself to voters and she passed the test," Del Percio said. "Not only that, she rattled a former president.

Veteran political adviser Hank Sheinkopf agreed with most other commentators that Trump had resorted to vitriol rather than hammering Harris on economic issues and trying to brand her as an extremist.

Sheinkopf, who has advised mostly Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, said Harris’ performance may have gained her support in battleground states in the showdown in the Electoral College, which Trump used to win the presidency in 2016 after losing the popular vote.

For example, Harris repeatedly said Trump would give up Ukraine to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, who would then target Poland and the rest of Europe. Trump responded that he would end Ukraine-Russia war in one day, but wouldn’t say if he wanted Ukraine to win.

Harris told Trump at the Philadelphia debate: "Tell the 800,000 Polish Americans" in Pennsylvania, one of the battleground states, about his close relationship with Putin.

"The comment about Poland in Pennsylvania will get her some votes and also in parts of the Midwest where she has targeted," Sheinkopf said.

Yet Sheinkopf said Trump also landed punches on inflation, for which Trump blamed on Harris and President Joe Biden, and Harris had no strong counter. Sheinkopf said studies show voters cast votes more on domestic issues more than foreign policy.

Still, Trump may have undercut his own arguments on domestic issues, said Meena Bose, chairwoman of presidential studies and political scientist at Hofstra University.

"The Harris-Walz campaign may use Trump’s incorrect and troubling comments about late-term abortions and immigrants taking people’s pets to question his fitness to lead, competence, and character," Bose said.

Bose referred to Trump’s repeated false statements that the Democratic ticket of Harris and her running mate, Tim Walz, want to legalize abortion even after a baby is born. Trump also said illegal immigrants are eating Americans’ dogs and cats in some towns, a point that was identified as false by ABC debate co-moderator David Muir.

"They likely will link those questions to concerns about his ability to lead the United States at home, particularly economic leadership, and abroad, which could make a difference in battleground states," Bose said.

The debate showed the power women can wield in politics today to connect with important swing voters who could decide the race, said Teri Finneman, a journalism professor at the University of Kansas who has studied women in politics. Democrats have made a major issue of Trump’s appointment of a conservative majority to the Supreme Court that overthrew the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that protected abortion rights nationwide.

"While Harris has not made a point of emphasizing her gender," Finneman told Newsday, "Harris consistently has framed herself as the best choice to promote women’s health care. This has proven to be very effective, as she has shown empathy on a level rarely seen by male candidates for the struggles that women and families have endured since Roe was overturned.

"Her emphasis that she understands the struggles of middle-class families and is here 'for you' also takes a more feminine approach of showing empathy for others," Finneman said.

Harris also got an important, if not unexpected, boost moments after the debate from the endorsement of pop star Taylor Swift, Finneman said.

"While certainly a lot can happen and change in the next two months — which we have wildly seen this year — making it unclear how much the specific debate will influence the election, certainly influencing more people to register to vote now will have an impact later," she said.

By Michael Gormley

michael.gormley@newsday.com@GormleyAlbany

Michael Gormley has worked for Newsday since 2013, covering state government, politics and issues. He has covered Albany since 2001.