What to expect in the Democratic gubernatorial debate

The campaign for governor hits a new gear Tuesday when the incumbent meets her rivals in a Democratic debate just three weeks before voters go to the polls.

For the first time, Gov. Kathy Hochul squares off face to face against Long Island's Rep. Tom Suozzi and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams at the live forum hosted by WCBS/2, beginning at 7 p.m.

And the debate comes at a time when Democrats locally and nationally are arguing about how progressive they should be in a year that pundits say will favor Republicans.

“I think we are looking at the future of the Democratic Party being decided,” said Gerald Benjamin, a longtime New York political observer and retired dean at SUNY New Paltz, about the stakes of the Democratic primary.

The debate will feature Williams coming from the political left, urging the Democrats to back more liberal policies. Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) will be continuing his heavy critique of Hochul on crime, taxes and fundraising while taking progressive positions on gun safety and the environment.

Team Suozzi is promising a “sharp contrast” in leadership.

Hochul, who ascended to governor in August when Andrew M. Cuomo resigned, will be in the middle but has the advantages of incumbency: endorsements, campaign cash and name recognition.

“I think [Hochul] is confronted with a real emerging crisis in the Democratic Party, and that will manifest itself in the debate: Which is the establishment of the left as the alternative center of energy for the party,” Benjamin said

The first Democratic debate actually was Thursday, but Hochul skipped it. To no surprise, she was still the center of attention as Suozzi and Williams sought to portray her administration as falling short on a raft of issues.

Expect more of the same with Hochul in person.

“Because she is clearly the front-runner in money and endorsements and in the polls, somebody is going to have knock her off stride,” said Lisa Parshall, a Daemen University political scientist.

“But it’s going be hard to do,” Parshall said. The incumbent will have the advantage of pointing to accomplishments in office and saying, “while you were off debating, I was doing things.”

Hochul, analysts said, will have to show she’s been an effective leader, accomplishing things instead of just talking since taking office. She was Cuomo’s lieutenant governor for seven years, but not very involved in his administration.

That’s allowed her to try to distance herself from Cuomo when his scandals over sexual harassment allegations, a book deal and COVID-19 response hit. But it also meant taking over as the state bounced through a series of crises.

In particular, Parshall said, Hochul can point to last week, when she and the State Legislature last week approved a series of laws on abortion rights and gun safety — measures that Suozzi and Williams generally support, too.

Her rivals will try to show her to be the typical “Albany pol” and look to pounce on any stumble, Parshall said.

But Hochul still has some persuading to do, Benjamin said. Though the governor is ahead in the polls, her job approval rating has dipped steadily in recent months.

“It seems she is every day attacking the most recent problem,” Benjamin said, citing, among other things, the recent mass shooting in Buffalo. “What she hasn’t been showing is her systematically governing.”

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy