NYS Democrats facing a red reality with Trump's return to power

ALBANY — Donald Trump’s return to the White House with greater Republican power in Washington creates a new reality colored red with potential consequences for New Yorkers, analysts said.

Political and academic researchers and New York’s Democratic-elected officials warn that Trump’s home state, where he has been vilified, lampooned, sued and prosecuted, is a top target for his promised “retribution” against the “enemy from within.”

Democrats fear for an erosion of rights of immigrants and marginalized groups, and reduced federal aid such as for mass transit. They worry that environmental and public health regulation will be diminished and expect Trump to oppose climate change measures.

“This is not a typical Republican administration,” said Susan Del Percio, a national political commentator who worked for Republicans and Democrats in New York. “They will be breaking all the rules ... a lot of voters, especially in New York, have a lot of concern about Trump being elected.”

Republicans, however, say Trump will bring the prosperity voters want through job growth by loosening regulations on businesses and make New York safer, promises that drew GOP and independent voters to Trump.

Wall Street already has responded with a spike, which could benefit 401(k) retirement plans and the state public pension systems as well as wealthy business operators and companies that supported him.

New York Republicans say Trump won not just an election, but a mandate. They note that Trump won the important suburban vote, including on Long Island.

“Democrats have made it their mission to vilify Donald Trump," said Assembly Republican leader Will Barclay of Pulaski. "If the president counters the failing Democratic policies in New York, it won’t be out of revenge, but out of common sense. The migrant crisis, unworkable climate goals, and dangerous public safety 'reforms' should have been addressed by now."

"I think it’s safe to say Democrats’ woke initiatives helped fuel Donald Trump’s strong showing here," Barclay told Newsday.

“The people showed they want to stop the overflow of illegal immigration, empower law enforcement officials to protect our communities, and fix our broken economy,” said Senate Republican leader Robert Ortt, of North Tonawanda. He rejected the idea that Trump exact revenge on his home state.

"Despite the relentless lawfare and partisan attacks from state Democrats, he won’t back down from defending the millions of hardworking New Yorkers who support his vision for a stronger America and a safer, more affordable New York," Ortt said.

Nonpartisan political observers said the likely clashes as seen by New York Democrats include:

• Trump’s promised mass deportation of immigrants without proper documentation, including those working here and living in New York for years with their families.
• Reduced federal aid such as for mass transit, including the Long Island Railroad and city subways, which would require New Yorkers to pick up billions of dollars in costs.
• Trump’s promise to end the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, that has provided health insurance to millions in New York, augmented by state programs.
• Policies that, under the Republicans’ Project 2025 game plan, would reduce reproductive rights for women and punish marginalized groups, including lesbian, gay, bisexual and trans adults, and trans students in schools.
• Reduced environmental and public health regulation sought by major Trump business donors; and diminished federal efforts to combat climate change.
• Failing to repeal or end the section of the 2017 tax cut package that limited the deductibility of state and local taxes on federal income tax returns. Trump, pushed by Long Island Republicans, eventually called for the end of the SALT provision, but Democrats have doubted his actions will match his campaign rhetoric for a measure that used the savings to cut taxes for large corporations.

“Trump’s victory and a Republican U.S. Senate and certainly with possible Republican control of the U.S. House will likely mean cuts to New York,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a 40-year veteran political strategist. “Say goodbye to any hope for restoration of state and local tax deductions.

“Should there be no Democrat control of either chamber, Democrats will achieve little and be in no position to demand anything,” Sheinkopf added.

He’s not alone in his concern.

“New York residents and those of others in blue states that again weren’t hospitable to Trump have to hope that he and his allies won’t declare a war of retribution,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University's National Center for Suburban Studies. “If nothing else, it could punish millions of Republicans who live in the same neighborhoods as the Democrats who voted against him.”

In Albany, Democrats have so far tried to soften their reaction to Trump’s win. They pledged to work with Trump on shared bipartisan goals, but the offer comes with a hammer.

“If you try to harm New Yorkers or roll back their rights, I will fight you every step of the way,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said Wednesday.

“We will not compromise our values, our integrity or our principals,” Attorney General Letitia James said. She has sued and prosecuted Trump over policies he tried to enact in his first term and over his actions as a private businessman. “We are prepared to respond.”

Teri Finneman, a journalism and mass communications professor at the University of Kansas, said Wednesday that such concern isn’t restricted to Democratic leaders.

“Many women, immigrants and members of the LGBTQ community woke up with fear this morning, illustrating they do not expect a second Trump administration or other elected leaders to represent them,” said Finneman, who has studied women in political history and state government. “What happens next is solely the decision of Donald Trump.”

New York Democrats already are being pressured to act against Trump.

A coalition of immigrant advocates called New York 4 All calls for quick adoption of a state law barring all police in New York state from “colluding” with federal immigration agents in Trump’s threatened mass deportation.

“We must make clear that New York refuses to do Trump’s dirty work,” said a statement from Rachel Cohen of the Immigrant Defense Project. “The time is now.”

Democrats in blue states have a role to play, and the U.S. Constitution empower states to thwart many federal actions, said Michael Kink, executive director of the Strong Economy for All Coalition, which is a union-backed advocate for the working poor and middle class.

“We have to stand up to things that are wrong even if the federal government uses its power to enforce it,” Kink said.

States have a better chance under the U.S. Constitution to push back on federal measures involving reproductive rights, but less legal authority to fight the White House or Congress on immigration and environmental issues that require national policies, said Meena Bose, a political science professor at Hofstra University who has researched the presidency.

Democrats say they are ready to combat Trump, but they are also counting to some extent on history. Usually parties that win big in a presidential year often overreach and lose clout two years later in the congressional midterm elections that “tend to correct things,” Del Percio said.

“We move on and the way we move on is we keep fighting,” she said of those fearing Trump’s impact on New York. “And we don’t say we’re doomed.”

By Michael Gormley

michael.gormley@newsday.com@GormleyAlbany

Michael Gormley has worked for Newsday since 2013, covering state government, politics and issues. He has covered Albany since 2001.