New York congressional redistricting could affect control of the House
ALBANY — A court mandate to redraw New York’s congressional districts will give Democrats an opportunity to regain seats they lost to Republicans last year.
It’s an issue being watched around the political world because even a small change or two in New York could be enough to change control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
But don’t go thinking it’s guaranteed.
“The conventional wisdom is Democrats will benefit from redistricting. I’m skeptical of that,” said Luke Perry, a political scientist at Utica University. “I don’t think it’s a slam dunk for Democrats.”
New York is one of more than a handful of states where Democrats and Republicans have been battling in court over redistricting, which is the drawing of congressional districts following the latest U.S. Census. Fierce battles have been held in Wisconsin, North Carolina and others. Alabama recently was ordered to redraw its map to potentially boost minority representation.
The drawing of boundaries always has been heated — shifting a town or county to a new district can make it more favorable to a particular candidate — but it’s become more bitter because of the narrow divide in Congress, analysts said.
“Literally, each seat means something when a change of three, four or five seats can mean the difference in Congress,” said Jeff Wice, a senior fellow at the New York Census and Redistricting Institute of New York Law School.
In New York, the Court of Appeals has ruled that a court-ordered map last year applied just to the 2022 election and a new one must be drawn.
But there are many cards to be played before New York finalizes boundaries for its 26 congressional districts. A bipartisan commission is supposed to agree on a proposed map to send the State Legislature, even though it failed to do so last time.
The Democratic-dominated legislature has some leeway to draw the lines — but can’t go as far as it did in 2022, when courts ruled their map was an illegal gerrymander skewed to help Democrats. Another round of legal challenges in 2024 always are a possibility in which part of the Republican goal could be to push the issue off until 2025.
Beyond the map wrangling, 2024 will be a presidential election and the battle at the top of the ticket will have a bigger influence than the tweaking of any district boundaries, or, for that matter, any local issues, analysts said.
“The biggest influence on these congressional districts is not going to be the way the lines are drawn or crime in New York City or accessory dwelling units in their village,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean for suburban studies at Hofstra University, referring to housing mandates and other state campaign issues.
He said: “It’s going to be about the top of the ticket” and whether Democrat Joe Biden prevails again over Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or whomever the Republicans back.
That said, New York Democrats will be eyeing first-term Republicans on Long Island and upstate when they go about mapping new districts: Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), Michael Lawler (R-Pearl River), Marcus Molinaro (R-Poughkeepsie) and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse).
There’s also the fight to replace the now-expelled George Santos in the Nassau County-based 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi will face Mazi Melesa Pilip, an enrolled Democrat running as a Republican, in a special election in February. Whoever wins still will have to run again in November in a district that’s likely to be changed to a degree.
“Not only are these races important to the national total, but these are also seats the Democratic Party thinks they let get away in ’22,” said Grant Reeher, a Syracuse University political scientist. “These are the seats that are ripe for turning back.”
Democrats generally get a turnout boost during presidential election years, which could help their candidates. But “each of these districts is going to have a different story” during the campaign, Reeher said.
Further, by Election Day, each rookie will have had nearly two full years in office — time to become better known and deliver goodies for the district, making them potentially “solid incumbents,” Perry said.
In addition, Perry noted Republicans have rolled to big local victories on Long Island over the last three years. The party has won the county executive and many county legislature races in Nassau and Suffolk counties and major townwide offices — along with electing Republicans to all four of its congressional seats.
Flipping those seats will be a difficult task for Democrats, he said.
“Long Island has moved to the right in the last few elections,” Perry said. “Unless the congressional lines change dramatically, it’s hard to see this changing.”
ALBANY — A court mandate to redraw New York’s congressional districts will give Democrats an opportunity to regain seats they lost to Republicans last year.
It’s an issue being watched around the political world because even a small change or two in New York could be enough to change control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
But don’t go thinking it’s guaranteed.
“The conventional wisdom is Democrats will benefit from redistricting. I’m skeptical of that,” said Luke Perry, a political scientist at Utica University. “I don’t think it’s a slam dunk for Democrats.”
WHAT TO KNOW
- A court mandate to redraw New York’s congressional districts will give Democrats an opportunity to regain seats they lost to Republicans last year.
- Even a small change or two in New York could be enough to change control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
- The drawing of boundaries always has been heated, but it’s become more bitter because of the narrow divide in Congress, analysts said.
New York is one of more than a handful of states where Democrats and Republicans have been battling in court over redistricting, which is the drawing of congressional districts following the latest U.S. Census. Fierce battles have been held in Wisconsin, North Carolina and others. Alabama recently was ordered to redraw its map to potentially boost minority representation.
The drawing of boundaries always has been heated — shifting a town or county to a new district can make it more favorable to a particular candidate — but it’s become more bitter because of the narrow divide in Congress, analysts said.
“Literally, each seat means something when a change of three, four or five seats can mean the difference in Congress,” said Jeff Wice, a senior fellow at the New York Census and Redistricting Institute of New York Law School.
In New York, the Court of Appeals has ruled that a court-ordered map last year applied just to the 2022 election and a new one must be drawn.
But there are many cards to be played before New York finalizes boundaries for its 26 congressional districts. A bipartisan commission is supposed to agree on a proposed map to send the State Legislature, even though it failed to do so last time.
The Democratic-dominated legislature has some leeway to draw the lines — but can’t go as far as it did in 2022, when courts ruled their map was an illegal gerrymander skewed to help Democrats. Another round of legal challenges in 2024 always are a possibility in which part of the Republican goal could be to push the issue off until 2025.
Beyond the map wrangling, 2024 will be a presidential election and the battle at the top of the ticket will have a bigger influence than the tweaking of any district boundaries, or, for that matter, any local issues, analysts said.
“The biggest influence on these congressional districts is not going to be the way the lines are drawn or crime in New York City or accessory dwelling units in their village,” said Lawrence Levy, executive dean for suburban studies at Hofstra University, referring to housing mandates and other state campaign issues.
He said: “It’s going to be about the top of the ticket” and whether Democrat Joe Biden prevails again over Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or whomever the Republicans back.
Targeting freshmen
That said, New York Democrats will be eyeing first-term Republicans on Long Island and upstate when they go about mapping new districts: Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), Michael Lawler (R-Pearl River), Marcus Molinaro (R-Poughkeepsie) and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse).
There’s also the fight to replace the now-expelled George Santos in the Nassau County-based 3rd Congressional District. Democrat Tom Suozzi will face Mazi Melesa Pilip, an enrolled Democrat running as a Republican, in a special election in February. Whoever wins still will have to run again in November in a district that’s likely to be changed to a degree.
“Not only are these races important to the national total, but these are also seats the Democratic Party thinks they let get away in ’22,” said Grant Reeher, a Syracuse University political scientist. “These are the seats that are ripe for turning back.”
Democrats generally get a turnout boost during presidential election years, which could help their candidates. But “each of these districts is going to have a different story” during the campaign, Reeher said.
Further, by Election Day, each rookie will have had nearly two full years in office — time to become better known and deliver goodies for the district, making them potentially “solid incumbents,” Perry said.
In addition, Perry noted Republicans have rolled to big local victories on Long Island over the last three years. The party has won the county executive and many county legislature races in Nassau and Suffolk counties and major townwide offices — along with electing Republicans to all four of its congressional seats.
Flipping those seats will be a difficult task for Democrats, he said.
“Long Island has moved to the right in the last few elections,” Perry said. “Unless the congressional lines change dramatically, it’s hard to see this changing.”
