Atlantic hurricane season likely to see more storms than normal, NOAA forecasters say

A decadeslong stretch of high hurricane activity in the Atlantic will likely continue this season, with up to 10 forecast, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook issued Thursday.

Typically, hurricane season averages 14 named storms including seven hurricanes, three of them major, defined as Category 3 or stronger, with winds of 111 mph or higher. NOAA forecast 13 to 19 total named storms, including six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

The outlook does not predict how many storms will make landfall or what areas they might affect. The outlook for hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 10% chance of a below-normal season in 2025, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 60% chance of something more.

"Everything’s in place for an above-average season," National Weather Service director Ken Graham told reporters in a briefing.

Stronger storm factors

Factors the weather service cited include warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, which provide more energy to fuel storm development, along with forecasts for weak wind shear. Strong wind shear would disrupt tropical storms before they develop into hurricanes. Meteorologists also said there was potential for higher activity from the West African monsoon, where many Atlantic hurricanes develop.

Extreme storm events are becoming a greater threat to New York, according to the state Department of Environmental Conservation, in part because storm surge, one of the most dangerous impacts of rotating storms, is worsened by rising sea levels.

In 2011, Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee hit the East Coast back to back, bringing damaging winds, extreme precipitation and significant flooding. In 2012, Superstorm Sandy brought heavy rains, strong winds and record storm surge, causing $60 billion in "catastrophic damage" to Long Island, New York City and New Jersey, according to the DEC. In August 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias took out power to more than 650,000 of LIPA's 1.2 million customers. Last August, a series of storms caused $41 million in flood damage in Suffolk County, mostly on the North Shore.

Hurricane history

Since 1934, Long Island has been battered by more than 44 tropical storms and hurricanes. The deadliest weren't always the strongest: the 1938 Long Island Express, which made landfall near Bellport as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph, killed about 60 people, injured hundreds more and destroyed thousands of homes and farms.

In a statement Thursday, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman said that "each and every year we prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. We monitor the weather closely and train frequently to make sure that all of our assets are available should there be a hurricane or any other emergency."

Suffolk County Executive Edward P. Romaine did not respond to a request for comment. 

Hyper-active storm seasons

According to the NOAA, this year's North Atlantic hurricane season could be the ninth out of the last 11 with above-average activity. Since 1995, 21 of 30 seasons have had above-normal activity and half of those have been hyper-active, a category NOAA reserves for years where the measure of accumulated cyclone energy over a season is especially large. 

A hotter planet does not appear to be yielding more storms or even stronger ones, Graham said in response to a reporter’s question about the impact of climate change. But, because warmer air holds more moisture, meteorologists are seeing heavier rainfall, he said.

"You go to some of these communities [and hear] ... ‘I’ve lived here my whole life, I’ve never seen rainfall rates like that,' " he said.

The weather service’s outlook joined several already released, including one from Colorado State University predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The university’s model predicted a 51% chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the East Coast, higher than the 43% average chance for the period from 1880 to 2020.

After Trump administration job cuts this spring, nearly half the National Weather Service forecast offices had 20% vacancy rates, a level experts said met the threshold for critical understaffing.

Laura Grimm, NOAA chief of staff, said the hurricane center, which coordinates warnings and forecasts, was fully staffed.

Graham said hurricane prediction would not be affected.

"The models are as good as they’ve ever been," he said. But Graham added a warning: "It only takes one. So we got to be prepared right now."

With AP