Americans Paul Whelan, left, Evan Gershkovich, and Russian activist Ilya...

Americans Paul Whelan, left, Evan Gershkovich, and Russian activist Ilya Yashin. Credit: AP

The release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, held hostage in Russia since March 2023 on bogus charges of espionage, in a prisoner swap (along with two other U.S. citizens, six other Western prisoners held in Russia, and seven Russian political prisoners) is, above all, cause for celebration.

Yet the exchange, the largest of its kind in decades, raises complicated questions — and may well play a role in the presidential race.

Over the past year, Donald Trump has repeatedly used Gershkovich’s detention as a stick to beat President Joe Biden, claiming that only he could get the journalist freed while “paying nothing.” In May, in a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump bragged that in the event of his victory, Gershkovich would be released before he even took office: “Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else.”

Now, just three months before the election, Putin has dramatically deflated Trump’s boasting, leading some to speculate that the Kremlin may have concluded Trump is likely to lose in November. But that’s not very plausible, considering the deal to free Gershkovich and other hostages was in the works for months.

Whether or not that was Putin’s intent, the release almost certainly helps Kamala Harris. It’s a win for the Biden administration. It’s also a win for the vice president personally, since she was reportedly extensively involved in the negotiations. And it undercuts Trump, who is now reduced to griping that the exchange was “a bad deal.”

It’s true that the exchange, like almost any such trade, has its undesirable aspects — notably the release to Russia of Vadim Krasikov, a special intelligence-linked hit man who was serving life in prison in Germany for the murder of a Chechen opposition leader. Putin’s interest in getting him back, analysts say, is not that he cares for Krasikov but that he wants to send a signal to other assassins in his employ that he’ll take care of them if they get caught.

But on the other side of the ledger are the lives of 16 innocent hostages. Besides Gershkovich, they include former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan and Russian American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, veteran Russian dissidents Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin, and Russian anti-war activist Alexandra Skochilenko. Their ordeals echo that of basketball star Brittney Griner, exchanged for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout in 2022.

It is reported that Alexei Navalny, the anti-corruption activist and dissident, was being considered for inclusion in this exchange when he died in a penal colony last February. Reports of such negotiations first surfaced in the independent Russian-language media after Navalny’s death; they were also confirmed by veteran investigative journalist Chriso Grozev. Some reports say Putin ordered Navalny killed because he was determined not to let him go but didn’t want to openly reject a deal that included his release.

There is much else we do not yet know: for instance, whether far-right American pundit Tucker Carlson, who interviewed Putin shortly before Navalny’s death and pressed him about Gershkovich, played any role in making the deal happen. Carlson spent many years working for the same Rupert Murdoch media empire that includes The Wall Street Journal, and sat next to Trump at last month’s Republican National Convention.

Regardless of such details, the prisoner release is a good day for freedom. It is also a reminder to Americans and Europeans not to travel to Russia as long as it is ruled by a regime that takes hostages to trade for its spies and assassins.

  

Opinions expressed by Cathy Young, a writer for The Bulwark, are her own.

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