Potential free agent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has Mets fans star-gazing, but will Steve Cohen pay?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays reacts after the eighth inning against the Mets during the home opener at Citi Field on Friday. Credit: Jim McIsaac
Juan Soto probably earned the loudest applause during Friday’s pregame introductions for the Citi Field opener. But as far as the most enthusiastic fan response, the Mets’ new $765 million rightfielder probably wound up in a three-way tie with Francisco Lindor — boosted by MVP chants — and Pete Alonso, thanks to the crowd screaming his name in roll-call fashion.
Before those Mets took the field, however, there was an early fan favorite, and he came from the visitors’ dugout, wearing a Blue Jays uniform.
No, not Max Scherzer. Or even Chris Bassitt.
It was Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
He’s not a former Met, of course. But the idea of giving a raucous welcome to the Toronto first baseman had more to do with the possibility of Guerrero becoming a future Met, as the team reportedly touched base with the Jays during the winter about a potential trade during the stalled negotiations with Alonso.
Presumably, that was the reason, and with the four-time All-Star technically scheduled to become a free agent after this season — he set an Opening Day deadline on negotiations with Toronto — maybe it’s never too early to get a jump on Guerrero’s courtship.
A little Flushing love, followed up by Steve Cohen’s cash, and the Mets would figure to be among the front-runners if they so desired.
For his part, Guerrero shrugged off the surprising Citi Field affection. Or at least made it sound as if such a reception wasn’t all that unusual.
“To be honest with you, that’s normal for me,” Guerrero told reporters through an interpreter. “I’ve never been booed in any other stadium. Everybody always has been nice to me everywhere I go.”
As for the Blue Jays, who have dragged their feet on a contract extension for their 26-year-old homegrown star, they probably don’t come off quite as nice these days in Guerrero’s view. After the slugging first baseman reportedly turned down a $500 million offer toward the end of spring training, team president Mark Shapiro still spoke confidently about the Jays’ chances.
“I think we’re going to sign him,” Shapiro told reporters in Dunedin, Florida. “I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome. Vlad wants to play his whole career as a Toronto Blue Jay. We want him to end his career in a Blue Jays uniform, to be a true legacy player for the Toronto Blue Jays. That’s a pretty good place to start.”
The latter part of that conversation sounds familiar. It’s ripped right from the dialogue between the Mets and Alonso over the winter. But the two sides still needed until the first week of February to agree on a two-year, $54 million deal that was way below what anyone would have expected, given the history between the franchise and its beloved Polar Bear. (His $30 million salary this season, however, does make him the highest-paid player at his position, and he can opt out of the second year.)
Heading into his 2024 walk year, Alonso had averaged 43 homers and 125 RBIs the previous two seasons, numbers that figured to line him up for a long-term deal with a floor of $200 million. Instead, he was thinking well north of that, and he turned down a seven-year, $158 million offer before hitting free agency and hired Scott Boras.
That didn’t quite work out as Alonso had imagined, as the Mets appeared to be the lone attractive suitor by winter’s end. Interestingly enough, the Blue Jays were the only other team to make a serious bid. Point is, if the Mets didn’t have the appetite to lock up Alonso — a fan favorite, a proven New York performer and one of the game’s most prolific home run hitters — there’s reason to be skeptical about them breaking the bank for Guerrero if he even makes it to free agency.
The Mets have the second-highest payroll in the majors this season at $326 million and already are committed to $203 million for next year, second to the Dodgers’ $299 million for 2026. Cohen just invested $765 million in Soto and has another $341 million in Lindor and $162 million in Brandon Nimmo.
Although the Mets do have the richest individual owner in Cohen, who’s worth more than $21 billion, according to Forbes, he has expressed a preference to eventually dip under the top luxury-tax threshold — which is named after him — at some point.
If Guerrero already is rejecting $500 million offers before reaching free agency, he’s going to require another serious outlay of cash. Soto was a special case, and we’d surmise that Cohen would be reluctant to follow that up with another half-billion for Guerrero. As for president of baseball operations David Stearns, he’d certainly be thumbs-down on another lifetime deal at that exorbitant price.
This could be a moot point, anyway. Despite Guerrero’s Opening Day deadline for negotiations, it’s always possible for him to bend if the Blue Jays come up with a more tempting package, and there were reports floating around Friday that he might be close on an extension in the $500 million range. Guerrero denied them after the game.
“We didn’t talk anything about contracts or deals or nothing like that,” Guerrero said. “Just talking about family and seeing how we’re doing. Like I said before, I’m playing right now. I’m concentrating on the games, on my teammates.”
If Guerrero does make it to free agency, the Mets’ primary focus at first base is shaping up to be Alonso after what we’ve witnessed to this point. It’s very, very early, of course. But Alonso had three homers, 10 RBIs and an 1.183 OPS through his first seven games and looks like a man on a mission this season. He’s also been one of the sport’s most durable players. His 853 games since 2019 are second only to Marcus Semien’s 867.
It’s also worth mentioning that Alonso is on pace to own the Mets’ franchise record for home runs by the end of this season. He entered Saturday at 229, only 23 short of Darryl Strawberry. David Wright is next on the list at 242, which could be a hot month away now that Alonso is back to being his game-wrecking best.
Extension fever
The flurry of contract extensions since Opening Day — most notably the ones given to Garrett Crochet (six years, $170 million), Jackson Merrill (nine years, $135M), Ketel Marte (six years, $116.5M) and Kristian Campbell (eight years, $60M) — got us thinking about the Mets’ and Yankees’ own possibilities.
On the Mets’ side, Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos seemed to be on a potential track for extensions but now are back to wait-and-see mode. Alvarez should return by mid-May from surgery to repair a fractured hamate bone in his left hand, but injuries and uneven performance have cooled any momentum since his 25-homer season in 2023. Vientos also is facing a big prove-it year, but is off to a slow start (2-for-27) after his breakthrough season (27 homers, .837 OPS).
Over in the Bronx, the torpedo bat-wielding Anthony Volpe has four homers through his first eight games, perhaps an indication that his third year (on the brink of arbitration) could further establish him as a pillar of the Yankees’ future. Based on general manager Brian Cashman’s last two failed extensions, however, his policy is probably to wait these things out.
Those were the pair to Luis Severino (four years, $40M) and Aaron Hicks (seven years, $70M), both in 2019. Severino made only 40 starts in the next five injury-plagued seasons (with a $15M club option tacked on) and went 13-12 with a 4.47 ERA. The oft-injured Hicks batted .220 with a .702 OPS in four seasons before the Yankees released him in May 2023, still owing him $30 million through 2025.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
