Empty shelves, high prices concerns for Long Island businesses amid supply chain worries

Long Island businesses say they are worried about the impact the nation’s ongoing trade war will have on escalating prices as well as their ability to get goods on the shelves.

While all local businesses are likely to feel the effects of increased tariffs on trade, owners of businesses that Islanders regularly frequent, like restaurants, grocery stores and retailers, said they are anticipating challenges to sourcing goods from their vendors. Some are already seeing the price of certain goods increasing as their vendors prepare for tariff price hikes and lower supply of goods.

“Quite frankly, no matter what happens, prices are rising,” said Michael Tucker, president of the Long Island Food Council, a local trade group representing restaurants, grocers, food manufacturing business and others involved in food and beverage. “This is giving opportunities for these distributors to raise prices. I’m seeing it across the board.”

In response to the tariffs and expectation of price hikes, U.S. businesses have been canceling orders from China, postponing expansion plans and staying in a holding pattern to see what President Donald Trump may do next regarding tariffs.

Trumps unpredictable use of tariffs on imports seems likely to mean emptier shelves and higher prices for American shoppers, perhaps within weeks.

Last week, officials with the Port of Los Angeles said, within two weeks, arrivals to the port were expected to drop by 35% amid cancellations of shipments from China. 

Here are three things to know about the impact of tariffs on supply chains.

What factors are impacting imports to the U.S.?

Supply chains around the world are being impacted by several headwinds, said local trade experts, though rising prices remain chief among them.

“A lot of wholesalers that sell to retailers and retailers that buy directly have limited their purchases from China because some of these purchases could cost 170% more today than they did a month ago,” said Thomas Cook, managing partner of Blue Tiger International, an East Moriches-based international trade and supply chain consultancy. 

Cook said as much as 65% to 70% of purchase orders for Chinese goods have been canceled.

“If you just think about the enormity of that number and that’s what stocks our shelves,” Cook said.

Additionally, it can take on average about 28 days for a cargo ship from China to reach west coast ports, and close to 42 days for shipments that come through the Panama Canal up to the Port of New York and New Jersey.

How are local businesses preparing for potential supply issues?

While some businesses have been able to stock up on extra goods, or lock in prices with their vendors in the lead up to the tariff rollout in early April, some said their options have been more limited.

“We’re a small business and not having a lot of storage or warehouse space, we’re not able to do something like” stock up on goods in advance, said Nichole Garofalo, a principal with Anthony’s World of Floors in Port Washington.

Garofalo said she’s been in talks with her vendors who have already sent letters notifying her of price increases of between 8% and 12%.

“I don’t know how that is going to pan out when we pass that down to our end users,” she said.

For some business owners, like David Mandell, who owns 6 grocery stores, including Holiday Farms supermarkets and a Locust Valley Market, storing goods indefinitely isn’t an option, though he’s been able to lock in some lower prices by buying ahead.

“We do buy product far ahead,” Mandell said, adding that the business sometimes locks in the price of certain goods months in advance. “The question is will these prices be honored.”

Mandell said he’s made deals for food items in February that won’t be coming in until August. While they secured the lower price, he worries about vendors coming back looking to renegotiate.

What can Long Island customers expect to see in the coming weeks and months?

For restaurants on the Island, options remain limited when it comes to sourcing products that can’t be purchased locally.

“If you are a chef or the manager of a restaurant you can either look to change the prices on the menu or you look to take those certain items off your menu and be more creative,” said Dorothy Roberts, president of the Long Island Hospitality Association.

Local consumers are going to see “pricing increasing and I think you’re going to see some products being limited in terms of their availability and the variety to pick from,” Cook said.

“Some product lines, they are going to be vacant,” Cook said. “They’re not going to put them out there.”

With AP