An American pope? Not likely, say experts on the Vatican conclave assessing chance of Cardinal Timothy Dolan, others.

Cardinal Joseph Tobin, the archbishop of Newark, New Jersey, might be considered a strong candidate to become pope, according to longtime Vatican observers. He has a pastoral approach and charisma not unlike Pope Francis, is a proven administrator, has global experience and speaks five languages.

But he has one major problem: He’s an American.

The Roman Catholic Church has had 266 popes during its 2,000-year history, dating to St. Peter, the first. None, in the past 250 years, have come from the United States, even though today it has one of the largest Catholic populations in the world and is a major financial contributor to the church.

And that is not likely to change any time soon, no matter how attractive a U.S. candidate may be, church experts said. The conclave to elect the next pope starts Wednesday in the Sistine Chapel. Cardinals from around the world will gather to pick the successor to Francis, a Jesuit from Argentina who appointed 80% of them.

The main issue for Tobin and others is that traditionally "you didn't want to have an American pope, given that you had an American superpower," said David Gibson, director of the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University. "It was just too much concentrated" power.

"If you look at Tobin's profile," Gibson added, "he's perfect."

But he stands little chance of leading the 1.4-billion strong Roman Catholic Church, analysts said.

"I very much doubt it," said John Thavis, a longtime Rome bureau chief for Catholic News Service. "I don't think the world of the church is ready for an American pope."

Another name that has been talked about, at least in the past, is Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York. According to a book by Vatican correspondent Gerard O’Connell, during the first vote at the 2013 conclave that eventually elected Francis, Dolan got two votes out of 115 cast.

Analysts believe, though, that he will not be a factor in this conclave.

"I don't think so," said the Rev. Thomas Reese, a senior analyst for Religion News Service, citing in part Dolan’s age, 75. Jorge Bergoglio was older also at the 2013 conclave — 76 — "and he was elected, so anything is possible. But I have not heard any buzz about" Dolan.

The New York archbishop "certainly would have been an interesting pope," Thavis said. "But I think that time has come and gone."

As he got ready to take off for Rome two weeks ago, Dolan himself quipped to The New York Times: "I got a better chance at batting cleanup for the Yankees than I do being pope."

Cardinal Sean O’Malley, the sandal-wearing Franciscan priest who was brought in to clean up the sex abuse scandal in the Archdiocese of Boston two decades ago, is another figure whom many in the conclave might find appealing — if he wasn’t an American, church experts said. He reportedly also got some votes in the 2013 conclave.

"I think he would have been attractive to a lot of people," Thavis said. "He's 80 years old now. That doesn't mean he couldn't be elected pope. ... But I think at age 80, probably his chances are slim."

Pope's role in politics

Many cardinals also resist naming an American pope because they think American church leaders are too involved in politics, Thavis said.

"A lot of American cardinals have been culture warriors and proud of it," he said. "And I think the cardinals as a whole don't share that viewpoint."

Still, not every Vatican expert thinks the idea of an American pope is off the table because of the superpower issue.

Today, "that logic feels superannuated. America is no longer the world’s lone superpower," John Allen, a longtime Rome correspondent, wrote on Cruxnow.com. "Cardinals no longer care what passport a candidate holds, but rather what spiritual, political and personal profile he embodies."

In a series of profiles of "papabiles," the Italian term for a man who could be pope, Allen has included an American, Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, 69. The Chicago native has served as a missionary in Peru and headed a powerful Vatican office that advised Francis on picking new bishops around the world.

"As his fellow prelates have gotten to know the former Augustinian superior, many of them like what they see," Allen wrote.

Gibson, of Fordham, said another factor that might throw off the traditional resistance to an American pope is the election of President Donald Trump. Some cardinals might want a pope from the United States to confront Trump on issues such as immigration and aid for the poor.

Another wild card is if the conclave goes on for more than a few days, and none of the better-known candidates can reach the required minimum of two-thirds of votes, Thavis said. "Then somebody like Cardinal Tobin could be in play."

Tobin, 72, of Newark, was made a cardinal by Francis in 2016. He comes from an international religious order — the Redemptorists — known as "kitchen priests" unafraid to get involved in the sometimes-messy details of people’s lives.

As head of the 5,500-member order, he traveled to 70 countries and speaks Italian, French, Portuguese and Spanish. He’s held high-level posts at the Vatican, where he once inherited an investigation of U.S. nuns, who were accused of not following Catholic teaching. He questioned the probe and ended up getting "exiled" from Rome to Indianapolis, where he became archbishop.

Like Francis, Tobin has shown an openness to welcoming migrants, divorced Catholics and the LGBTQ community into the church.

"If he was an Italian," Reese said, "he would be a candidate."