Oscars: Ariana Grande? Demi Moore? 'Anora'? Our critic picks who should, will win

Demi Moore may not be a “popcorn actress” much longer.

That condescending nickname was given to her by a producer 30 years ago, Moore said in January, as she triumphantly held her Golden Globe award for best actress. Her win, in the musical or comedy category — where she competed against much-younger stars Zendaya, Mikey Madison and Cynthia Erivo — seemed to catch everyone off-guard, including Moore herself. After 45 years in the business, she noted, “this is the first time I’ve ever won anything as an actor.” (That’s not counting her MTV prize for best kiss in 1993’s “Indecent Proposal.”)

This past weekend, Moore notched another win, the Screen Actors Guild award for outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role. Now, as all eyes turn to Sunday's Academy Awards ceremony, Moore, 62, goes in as the front-runner to win best actress. Just a few months ago, that would have been unthinkable, but Moore has benefited from a perfect confluence of events: A sleeper hit movie that gave the actor one of her first starring roles in years, a cultural trend that has put a flattering spotlight on older women and — this being the Oscars — a rival campaign that self-immolated, leaving a major opening in the race. Here’s an overview of Moore's Oscar trajectory.

It began with “The Substance,” a splattery horror film about an aging actress (a shrewdly cast Moore) who ingests a black-market concoction that creates a younger version of herself (Margaret Qualley). Written and directed by Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance” delighted critics (“fearless,” the BBC said of Moore’s performance) and became a word-of-mouth hit. Made for a reported $17 million and released in November, the film went on to earn a tidy $77 million worldwide, according to BoxOfficeMojo.

The movie also joined a wave of stories being told by, for and about older women. Last year, Nicole Kidman, 57, played the lead in the erotic thriller “Babygirl,” while Pamela Anderson, also 57, played an aging dancer in “The Last Showgirl.” Over on the bestseller lists were two by women over 50: “All Fours,” Miranda July’s novel about a woman’s midlife crisis, and “Want,” Gillian Anderson’s collection of women’s sexual fantasies. And the trend continues: Renée Zellweger, 55, has returned in “Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy,” now streaming on Peacock.

Moore’s unexpected win at the Globes may have planted an idea in Oscar voters’ heads. After all, Moore has long been a popular favorite, from her Brat Pack days in “St. Elmo’s Fire” to her highest-paid-actress status on 1996’s “Striptease” (for which she earned a then-astonishing $12.5 million). Even some of Moore’s misses are well remembered: When Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the 94th Academy Awards, it was over a joke that mentioned “G.I. Jane,” Moore’s widely panned action flick from 25 years earlier. An Oscar win for Moore would put her in the company of other late-life, first-time winners such as Henry Fonda (for “On Golden Pond”) and Paul Newman (for “The Color of Money").

Then there’s the crash-and-burn Oscar campaign of onetime favorite Karla Sofía Gascón, the Spanish star of the Netflix musical “Emilia Pérez.” For a time, Gascón seemed a strong possibility to become the first openly transgender woman to win best actress. (Her film goes into the Oscars with a leading 13 nominations.) In late January, however, came reports of old social media posts in which Gascón griped about Muslims and the Black Lives Matter movement. An outcry arose and the actress apologized, but by the time Oscar voting closed, on Feb. 18, she had vanished from the campaign trail. It’s hard not to conclude that Gascón’s flameout has removed one more obstacle from Moore’s path.

Is Moore a sure thing to win? Anything could happen at the Oscars, of course. Here’s how the awards for best actress, best actor, best picture and other categories might shake out.

BEST PICTURE

"Anora"

"The Brutalist"

"A Complete Unknown"

"Conclave"

"Dune: Part Two”

"Emilia Pérez"

"I'm Still Here"

"Nickel Boys"

"The Substance"

"Wicked"

WHO SHOULD WIN “A Complete Unknown.” It’s an uncommonly smart, sensitive and insightful drama with a note-perfect Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan. The response to the film – positive, but not overwhelming – doesn’t bode well for its Oscar chances.

WHO WILL WIN “Anora.” Given the competition — from the ultra-arty “The Brutalist” to the somewhat low-key “Conclave” — this scrappy, lively comedy will probably emerge on top.

ACTOR

Adrien Brody, "The Brutalist"

Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"

Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"

Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"

Sebastian Stan, "The Apprentice"

SHOULD WIN Brody. Even those who aren’t convinced that “The Brutalist” is a masterpiece tend to agree that its star is a thing to behold. As a visionary architect struggling to complete a massive project, Brody is about as vivid and urgent as an actor can get.

WILL WIN Brody. Though Chalamet recently won the Screen Actors Guild award for his portrayal of Bob Dylan, Brody has built up too much momentum to lose this Oscar.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yura Borisov, "Anora"

Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"

Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"

Guy Pearce, "The Brutalist"

Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"

SHOULD WIN Culkin. He’s really the lead, playing a charismatic but troubled man-child who is by turns charming, maddening and frightening. It’s a beautiful performance, with a closing scene that won’t soon leave you.

WILL WIN Culkin.

ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"

Karla Sofía Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"

Mikey Madison, "Anora"

Demi Moore, "The Substance"

Fernanda Torres, "I'm Still Here"

SHOULD WIN Madison, a Los Angelino who plays a Brooklyn-born sex worker with impressive authenticity. She’s a pint-size fireball who makes the whole movie feel like it’s about to explode.

WILL WIN Moore. Hollywood, the media and American culture at large all seem to be in Moore’s corner — and let’s not forget the performance itself, which veers from vulnerable to ferocious in a movie that mixes social satire with (reportedly)  36,000 gallons of fake blood.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro, "A Complete Unknown"

Ariana Grande, "Wicked"

Felicity Jones, "The Brutalist"

Isabella Rossellini, "Conclave"

Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"

SHOULD WIN Grande. Playing the future Good Witch Glinda as a pampered princess, Grande is an absolute treat, endearing and infuriating all at once. Who knew the pop singer had such terrific comedic timing?

WILL WIN Saldaña. We knew she could act — but sing, dance and rap, too? Despite the public image problems of her co-star, Gascón, Saldaña has remained unscathed and should make it all the way to the stage on Sunday night.

DIRECTOR

Sean Baker, "Anora"

Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist"

James Mangold, "A Complete Unknown"

Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"

Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"

SHOULD WIN Mangold. A veteran of the rock biopic (“Walk the Line”), he handles “A Complete Unknown” with great delicacy and attention to detail. That, however, may not be enough to carry the day.

WILL WIN Baker. He’s known for his deceptively quick-and-dirty style (“Tangerine,” “Red Rocket”), and with “Anora” he’s finally found a way to sell his vision to the multiplex.

 ANIMATED FEATURE 

"Flow"

"Inside Out 2"

"Memoir of a Snail"

"Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl"

"The Wild Robot"

SHOULD WIN “The Wild Robot,” which uses an innovative, brush-daubed aesthetic to tell a heartwarming story about motherhood and sacrifice.

WILL WIN “The Wild Robot.”

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

"Anora"

"The Brutalist"

"A Real Pain"

"September 5"

"The Substance"

SHOULD WIN “A Real Pain.” Writer-director-star Jesse Eisenberg uses a simple little story — about Jewish American cousins visiting a Polish concentration camp — to explore bigger ideas about generational trauma.

WILL WIN “Anora.” Baker’s freewheeling screenplay recently won the Writers Guild Award in this category, all but cementing its Oscar win.

ORIGINAL SONG

"El Mal," from "Emilia Pérez"

"The Journey," from "The Six Triple Eight"

"Like A Bird," from "Sing Sing”

"Mi Camino," from "Emilia Pérez"

"Never Too Late," from "Elton John: Never Too Late"

SHOULD WIN “El Mal,” from “Emilia Pérez.” A mix of rap, rock, pop and opera, this energetic anthem (led by Saldaña) hits the sweet spot between avant-garde and accessible.

WILL WIN “El Mal,” from “Emilia Pérez.”

By Rafer Guzmán

rafer.guzman@newsday.com