Can Trump stop congestion pricing? What to know about the revived Manhattan toll 

Like midtown Manhattan’s bumper-to-bumper traffic, the long journey of New York’s congestion pricing plan has been marked by starts and stops, culminating with Gov. Kathy Hochul’s announcement Thursday that the new tolls will finally take effect on January 5.

Or will they?

Several steps remain before the Metropolitan Transportation Authority begins tolling most vehicles $9 for driving below 60th Street during peak hours. But looming over the plan is incoming President Donald Trump, a vehement opponent of congestion pricing who has previously vowed to "terminate" it. How, and whether, Trump would actually do that remains to be seen.

Other questions about the retooled congestion pricing plan are also outstanding, including whether it will accomplish the goals of significantly reducing traffic in Manhattan, while also significantly increasing the MTA’s coffers.

Here are some of those questions, and the answers that are known.

What are the details of the MTA’s new congestion pricing plan?

Five months after ordering a pause on the MTA’s Central Business District Tolling program, Hochul unveiled a retooled plan with a base toll of $9 for E-ZPass customers, lower than the $15 toll included in the original plan. The last 40% reduction applies to all other rates, meaning that overnight tolls (9 p.m. to 5 a.m. on weekdays, 9 p.m. to 9 a.m. on weekends) fall to $2.75, and the credit for entering the district through a tolled tunnel will be reduced to $1.50 during peak hours. Large trucks will pay $21.60. Toll rates will be about 50% higher for drivers without E-ZPass.

Hochul did not announce any changes to who will be exempt from the tolls — a list that currently includes vehicles transporting people with disabilities, buses, emergency vehicles, and certain "specialized government-owned vehicles." Low-income motorists can apply for a 50% discount.

Although Hochul framed the new plan as saving New Yorkers "millions of dollars" annually compared to the approved $15 toll, Jack Nierenberg, vice president of Passengers United, an advocacy group opposed to congestion pricing, said the new plan still comes with a significant financial burden for working families.

"She’s talking from the lens of someone who makes six figures every year," Nierenberg said. "If you’re an overnight worker, if you operate a small business, you have no choice but to drive in."

What’s left to start the tolls?

On Monday, the MTA Board is expected to vote on the new tolls, which would be charged using $500 million in equipment already installed, including E-ZPass scanners and cameras. MTA Board member Sammy Chu, of Plainview, expects the measure to sail through the board. "We wanted to get it done the first time. This represents, it seems to me, our last, best chance to get it done," Chu said.

Because the lower $9 toll is within the range of the rates considered in a federal environmental review, state and MTA officials say only a brief "reevaluation" of the plan by federal regulators is required. A Federal Highway Administration spokesperson said Friday that the "FHWA is working expeditiously to finalize the needed steps to complete the agreement."

After that would come a required 30-day "public review" period. Hochul and the MTA want to launch the tolls on midnight, Jan. 5 — about two weeks before President-elect Donald Trump, and his appointed Department of Transportation regulators, take office on Jan. 20.

Several lawsuits challenging the legality of congestion pricing could also seek injunctions to delay the start of the tolling plan.

Can President-elect Donald Trump stop it?

Throughout his campaign, Trump was a vocal opponent of congestion pricing, and, in May, vowed to "terminate" the plan in his first week in office. In a statement Thursday, Trump said only that he "strongly" disagreed with the "regressive tax," but also expressed "great respect" for Hochul.

Even if Trump wanted to nix congestion pricing, it’s not clear how — or if — he could, once President Joe Biden’s Department of Transportation issues final approval. Instead, opponents of the plan have urged Trump to withhold federal transportation funding to pressure New York to drop the plan.

"They're going to explore all options, which include the power of the purse," outgoing Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) said. "I think that President Trump has the opportunity to really take a look at all the federal funding that's going to the MTA. And those funds could very well change if congestion pricing is implemented."

Although much of the federal money is driven by formulas, there are also grants for major infrastructure projects that are awarded at the discretion of transportation officials.

Larry Penner, a transportation advocate who previously worked for the Federal Transit Administration, questioned whether Trump would have any incentive to go that route, given that Republican members of Congress in New York benefit from federal transportation funding.

Also, because of how unpopular congestion pricing is many parts of New York — including on Long Island — Penner said it may make more political sense to leave congestion pricing in place and allow Republicans to use it against Democrats in future elections, including for the governor’s job in 2026.

"They can say two years from now, ‘See, I told you so,’" Penner said.

Will the reduced tolls still accomplish the goals?

Not entirely. The 40% reduction in toll rates means the MTA won’t hit its annual revenue goal of $1 billion, which would be used to finance $15 billion in projects remaining in its $55 billion 2020-2024 capital program. Hochul’s office said the new toll rates "will still enable the MTA to leverage $15 billion in bonds ... over time."

MTA chairman and CEO Janno Lieber said the transit authority "will start to move projects forward" that had been put on hold because of the uncertainty funding, including by "promptly" putting out to bid a contract for tunnel boring for the next phase of the Second Avenue Subway. MTA officials would not say on Friday whether LIRR projects that were stopped, including station upgrades at Forest Hills and Hollis, would resume immediately.

The reduced toll rates also mean that motorists will have less of an incentive to leave their cars at home when heading into the city. At the $15 toll rate, the MTA projected a 17.3% reduction in the number of vehicles entering Manhattan’s central business district each day. At $9, Hochul said the reduction in traffic drops to 13.4% — still a significant amount, said Lisa Daglian, executive director of the MTA Permanent Citizens Advisory Committee.

"We’re talking about a program that is going to benefit the vast majority of drivers who come into the Central Business District, who are stuck for an hour trying to crawl into the tunnel or crawl over the bridge," Daglian said.

By Alfonso A. Castillo

alfonso.castillo@newsday.com@alfonsoreports

Alfonso Castillo has been reporting for Newsday since 1999 and covering the transportation beat since 2008. He grew up in the Bronx and Queens and now lives in Valley Stream with his wife and two sons.