Why the progressive 'Squad' is getting smaller after defeats this primary cycle

WASHINGTON — The "Squad,” a group of progressive lawmakers in the House, is set to shrink next year after two members suffered primary defeats this election cycle following an unprecedented deluge of special interest spending.

The primary losses for Reps. Cori Bush in Missouri and Jamaal Bowman in New York came over the summer and dealt a blow to the progressive faction, which had amassed considerable clout within the Democratic Party since its initial rise in 2018.

The cohort of Black and brown lawmakers — including Reps. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez of New York and Summer Lee of Pennsylvania — became the target of pro-Israel PACs like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, late last year after members criticized Israel's response to the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. Eight months later, AIPAC's super political action committee, United Democracy Project, helped unseat Bush and Bowman after pouring nearly $25 million combined into those races.

Still, there were other factors that contributed to the defeat of Bush and Bowman beyond their position Israel, raising questions as to what extent voters rejected their progressive politics.

Another member of the Squad, Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, easily won her primary Tuesday against a repeat challenger despite voting similarly to Bush and Bowman over the last two years and being a vocal critic of Israel.

Here's how the three Democratic primary races played out:

Bowman — New York's 16th District

Bowman was particularly vulnerable this election cycle because of redistricting.

The new map of his the district eliminated most sections of the Bronx and added more of Westchester County’s suburbs, greatly narrowing the number of Black voters who were key to Bowman’s reelection effort.

Then Bowman drew a strong challenger in well-known county executive George Latimer, a centrist with more than three decades of political experience in the Westchester area.

Latimer entered the race with the support of Jewish leaders in the district who were upset with Bowman’s critical stance on Israel. He also enjoyed hefty financial backing from AIPAC’s super PAC, which poured about $15 million in the race to support him.

The contest was largely shaped by Bowman’s position on Israel. Latimer hammered the incumbent as more focused on Israel than the needs of the district. Latimer also flexed his deep regional knowledge to make the case to voters that he could would be a more effective member of Congress.

Bowman, who was seeking a third term, also had to fend off persistent criticism over triggering a fire alarm in a House building while lawmakers were working on a funding bill. He said it was unintentional, but the incident drew waves of embarrassing coverage and he was censured by the House for his actions.

Bush — Missouri's 1st District

The focus of campaign ads against Bush in the final weeks before her August primary against St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell was not her scathing criticism of Israel or its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, but instead a vote that she and five of her Squad colleagues took in late 2021.

United Democracy Project, which spent more than $8.4 million against Bush, began airing ads in the local media market that highlighted the 48-year-old's vote against a bipartisan infrastructure bill signed into law by President Joe Biden and supported by the majority of the Democrats in Congress.

“This infrastructure bill that Joe Biden passed has been so good for working people in St. Louis,” one voter said during the 30-second ad. “Cori Bush voted against it.” Another added, “She voted against our jobs.”

Bush, Bowman, Omar and other progressives defended their vote against the bill at the time, saying it was a necessary stance as they fought for passage of a separate social and environmental package. But their vote on the bill only became a campaign issue for Bush.

Allies of Bush say the campaign to defeat her wouldn't have been possible had Bell not had the support of outside groups like UDP, which spent more than $400,000 to air the half-minute spot, according to data from the media tracking firm AdImpact.

“If you asked any any voter in any of these districts at the start of this cycle, ‘Do you know how your member of Congress voted on the infrastructure bill?’ no one would say yes,” Usamah Andrabi, a spokesman for the progressive Justice Democrats, told The Associated Press. “No one was thinking about a vote that happened three years ago for a bill that passed.”

Beyond her legislative record, Bush faced a series of public and personal scandals of her own in the last few years, including an ongoing Justice Department investigation into her campaign spending.

Omar — Minnesota's 5th District

Omar managed to avoid the fate of her two fellow Squad members and had several things going in her favor. First, the African-born congresswoman, who has broken many firsts since being elected to the House in 2018, had the advantage during her primary Tuesday of having previously defeated her challenger.

In 2022, former Minneapolis city councilman Don Samuels came just two percentage points short of beating Omar with the help of UDP, which spent six figures in the race. This time around, the third-term lawmaker took the threat posed by Samuels and a potential influx of AIPAC money much more seriously.

“I think the congresswoman and her team understood that there needed to be a lot of work to remind people in that district about what type of leadership she brought,” Andrabi said. “And I think she exemplified that.”

Omar also raised a lot more money for the primary, with her campaign reporting that it raised around $6.2 million. Samuels, on the other hand, raised about $1.4 million.

“What I was hoping is that a strong ground game and an attention to the details of folks who felt left out would trump an overwhelming superiority in dollars,” Samuels said in a recent AP interview. “Clearly money matters a little more in politics than I had hoped.”

Omar's substantial fundraising advantage, coupled with the endorsements of Minnesota’s Democratic Party and progressive leaders like Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, helped her win by nearly 14 points.

And possibly the most important factor in her race was that groups like AIPAC ultimately didn't get involved despite threatening to unseat any candidate they deemed insufficiently pro-Israel.